Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) – May 2012
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Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) – May 2012
LI rebound in May – The Leading Index (LI) rebounded in May from 112.2 to 112.6, showing an increase of 2.3% y-o-y and 0.4% m-o-m. Out of seven components that
make up the leading index, only three dropped and the rest either increased or remained unchange.
The improvement in LI was mainly driven by increase in Electrical and Electronic (E&E) exports in May, which registered a growth of 1.1% on a yearly basis, translating into an increase of 3.0% m-o-m in Real Imports of Semi Conductors (RISC) index.
In correspondence with better result in RISC index, Real Import of Other Basic Precious and Other Non-ferrous Metal index also recorded a positive growth of 0.1% m-om after contracted to 0.3% m-o-m previously.
Better result in Leading Diffusion Index – Leading Diffusion Index, a forward economic indicator, rebounded to 85.7% in May after declining to 42.9% previously. Any reading in both Coincident and Leading Diffusion indices of below 50% is signalling deteriorative economy and vice-versa.
Robust growth in Coincident Diffusion Index - Coincident Diffusion Index, a current economic indicator, has been continuously growing above 50% since Feb’12. (Feb’12: 100%; March’12: 100%; Apr’12: 83.3% and May’12: 83.3%). This shows a healthy sign of Malaysian economy.
Leading Index’s momentum is unlikely to be sustain - In our opinion, LI’s momentum is unlikely to be sustain in the upcoming months due to deteriorating Malaysian exports on the back of persistence Euro debt crisis, lower 1Q12 GDP rate in the US at 2.1% and softer China economy.
make up the leading index, only three dropped and the rest either increased or remained unchange.
The improvement in LI was mainly driven by increase in Electrical and Electronic (E&E) exports in May, which registered a growth of 1.1% on a yearly basis, translating into an increase of 3.0% m-o-m in Real Imports of Semi Conductors (RISC) index.
In correspondence with better result in RISC index, Real Import of Other Basic Precious and Other Non-ferrous Metal index also recorded a positive growth of 0.1% m-om after contracted to 0.3% m-o-m previously.
Better result in Leading Diffusion Index – Leading Diffusion Index, a forward economic indicator, rebounded to 85.7% in May after declining to 42.9% previously. Any reading in both Coincident and Leading Diffusion indices of below 50% is signalling deteriorative economy and vice-versa.
Robust growth in Coincident Diffusion Index - Coincident Diffusion Index, a current economic indicator, has been continuously growing above 50% since Feb’12. (Feb’12: 100%; March’12: 100%; Apr’12: 83.3% and May’12: 83.3%). This shows a healthy sign of Malaysian economy.
Leading Index’s momentum is unlikely to be sustain - In our opinion, LI’s momentum is unlikely to be sustain in the upcoming months due to deteriorating Malaysian exports on the back of persistence Euro debt crisis, lower 1Q12 GDP rate in the US at 2.1% and softer China economy.
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Re: Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) – May 2012
+1 for economic data
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