U.S. Portfolio

The U.S market remains very strong. Looking at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index we note that the S&P 500 is already above the key level of 1575. As I have written before, if it continues above of 1575 in the next two months, that would be very positive in the long term.
However, this period is still one and a half months away.

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This week the CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment Index * was displaying very bullish sentiment with 77%bulls. In rather stark contrast the AAII Investor Sentiment (American Association of Individual Investors) ** reflects very bearish sentiment, with 19,30% bulls and 54% bears, which is surprising since historically, when the market trend is up and new highs are being made, the number of bulls tends to increase rather than decrease.


These AAII Investor Sentiment numbers are typically seen at market bottoms, not during price advances. The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a bullish signal, and also suggests that Investors are trying to guess a top. We can also consider that investor confidence is lower than it ought to be in the context of a rally, but this is not the traditional interpretation of sentiment readings.

In conclusion, the number of bears suggests that the market will rise but my technical indicators for U.S. market still show mixed signals, so I will not put much money in the stock market. I, however, will follow the market developments next week closely and maybe I will buy one or two shares or ETFs.


(* Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the Consensus Inc. (Consensus - National Futures and Financial Investment Newspaper). The CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment of Market Opinion shows the positions and attitudes of professional brokers and advisors. Polling is conducted on Consensus web site with a Thursday cutoff and Friday release. The survey is available on Saturday for free on the Barrons web site at Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com).

(** Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors). Polling is conducted on the AAII web site with a Wednesday cutoff and Thursday release).

+1 rep given for unbias view

I will buy shares of Kilroy Realty: (NYSE: KRC).


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See annotated chart:

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dont mind me asking, maybe i overlooked; john

do you have a specific

KRC entry , lot size and TP (if open, running doesnt matter)

Calls
Thank you for the question.

At the start of this topic I said, and I quote:

JohnPaul wrote:
In order to see what is going to happen before it takes place the U.S. Portfolio has an important rule:

“All trade ideas and stop loss orders must be sent to this thread, with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening, and automatically placed on the market after the market opens. The orders will be executed at the opening price, except in the case of stop loss orders."

This means that all orders are executed at the opening price, except stop loss orders.
No matter what happens. This way, it is always possible to verify the entries and exits, and verify the results.

oops apologies , caught me red handed

hence correct me if wrong

entry for KRC would be for the day 54.08

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exit: not determined yet , for its still the same trading day (when is your exit strategy , may we ask,
1)is it dependant on your monitoring with in tandem with technicals and exprience
2) you have a daily trader close out when the market closes?

Yes, that's right.
Usually, the positions are closed by the stop order.
If I close the position for another reason, I will write on the forum before, and will be closed at the opening price.

The following is the current portfolio:

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Cals

If you have any question, let me know.

nice one on KRC, you bought this on the test of continued breakout of high

looks like its one last push through all time high.

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any thought on you selected this stock? fundamental news play? technicals? or using a scanner? just to ask John

Cals wrote:nice one on KRC, you bought this on the test of continued breakout of high

looks like its one last push through all time high.

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any thought on you selected this stock? fundamental news play? technicals? or using a scanner? just to ask John

I wrote about this some posts ago.

JohnPaul wrote:
In general, firstly I use technical analysis and, secondly, I use fundamental analysis.
I always give more importance to the technical analysis.

I read chart trend and then I follow the trend, and I also try to identify possible reversal points.
There are several ways to read the trend - for example, with the help of trend lines, technical indicators, chart patterns, et cetera. And I use it. I also use the Dow Theory definition of a trend based on highs and lows. A stock trending up is making higher highs and higher lows.

On the fundamental analysis, I give more attention to the Cash Flow from Operating Activities.
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So that's what I did. I selected Kilroy Realty: (NYSE: KRC) because of its bullish trend with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, and also because Kilroy Realty's net cash provided by operating activities increased in the last few years.
I give greater attention to these two particular areas, but I always give more importance to the technical analysis.

Below are the charts along with brief commentary.

The following two monthly charts give a long-term perspective for the S&P 500.

I am going to look again closely for the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.
In December 1980, the S&P 500 closed above to its resistance line and then fell for 20 months. For that reason, even if the index closes above to its resistance line, the fall will remain possible. On the other hand, if the index rises above 1625 (above 3,17% of its resistance line), it is more likely to go up rather than down.
At this time, the two paths remain open but the very bearish sentiment supports the continuation of the rise.
Let's see what happens. This month and next month will be very important to trace the path for long term.

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The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for the S&P 500.

The rally that began off the November low has been persistent.
In the context of a Bull Market, the 50 day moving average often serves as a support and that is what happened last Friday.
If the index falls below the 50 day moving average, this will be interpreted as a negative signal.

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+1 for KRC information
+2 for overview - more like in short term view S&P 500 is trading in a rising channel

4 New Buys

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Annotated charts:

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The following is the portfolio:

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enjoy watching your posts! +1

good for some ideas too

4 New Buys and 1 New stop loss order

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Hi JP,
what do you use to decide to take profit?

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The description of UGLD was incorrect.


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Annotated charts:

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JohnPaul wrote:Click here for complete charts:

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kppl wrote:Hi JP,
what do you use to decide to take profit?

Thank you for your interest.

Most of the time, the open positions are closed by the stop loss order, no matter if it makes a profit or a loss.
When I think there is something that is not going well, I´ll will place the stop loss order close to the current price.