Re: DJIA up or down

by **Cals** Thu 10 Oct 2013, 23:27

Livenow
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by **Cals** Sun 13 Oct 2013, 21:58

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by **kppl** Tue 15 Oct 2013, 22:48

US senators hint at possible fiscal deal on Tuesday

A month of combat in the U.S. Congress over government spending showed signs on Monday of giving way to a Senate deal to reopen shuttered federal agencies and prevent an economically damaging default on federal debt.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, and his Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell, ended a day of constant talks with optimistic proclamations, as details leaked out of the pact they were negotiating.
"We've made tremendous progress," Reid said at the end of a Senate session during a federal holiday, underscoring the urgency of settling a fiscal crisis that was nearing a Thursday deadline. The U.S. Treasury Department estimates it will reach a $16.7 trillion borrowing limit on Oct. 17.
"We hope that with good fortune ... that perhaps tomorrow will be a bright day," Reid said, hinting at the possible Tuesday announcement of a bipartisan Senate deal.
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by **kppl** Tue 15 Oct 2013, 22:50

Senator Reid says he's confident an agreement to avoid default will be reached this week
House GOP leaders moved Tuesday to counter an emerging Senate plan to reopen the government and forestall an economy-rattling default on U.S. obligations.
Top Republicans unveiled a plan that would repeal a new tax on medical devices and take away lawmakers' federal health care subsidies in addition to funding the government through Jan. 15 and giving Treasury the ability to borrow normally through Feb. 7.
The bill will ask for, among other things, a two year delay in a controversial medical device tax, and will require income verification for various aspects of Obamacare.
Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., said Republicans plan to pass the measure later Tuesday. It could prove tricky because Democrats probably won't support it.
The House move comes after conservative lawmakers rebelled at the outlines of an emerging Senate plan by Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and GOP leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
Those two hoped to seal an agreement on Tuesday, just two days before the Treasury Department says it will run out of borrowing capacity.
Shortly after the announcement, Senator Reid said that he's confident an agreement to avoid default will be reached this week.
The emerging Senate measure would reopen the government through Jan. 15 and permit the Treasury to borrow normally until early to mid-February, easing dual crises that have sapped confidence in the economy and taken a sledgehammer to the GOP's poll numbers.
Dow Jones reported the House measure would also place limits on the Treasury's ability to take the so-called extraordinary measures it has used to extend the debt ceiling in past.
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by **kppl** Thu 17 Oct 2013, 03:54

Deal Reached....
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House Speaker Boehner: House will not block Senate agreeement
The U.S. Senate announced a last-minute deal on Wednesday to avert a historic lapse in the government's borrowing ability and a potentially damaging debt default, and to reopen the government after a two-week shutdown.
Even if the Senate and House of Representatives manage to overcome procedural hurdles to seal the deal before Thursday - when the Treasury says it will exhaust its borrowing authority - it will only be a temporary solution that sets up the prospect of another showdown early next year.
Major U.S. stock indexes rose more than 1 percent on optimism that lawmakers were finally reaching a deal to end the weeks-long fiscal impasse.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican leader Mitch McConnell announced the agreement on the Senate floor, where it was expected to win swift approval after a main Republican critic of the deal, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, said he would not use procedural moves to delay a vote.
Weeks of bitter fighting among Democrats and Republicans over President Barack Obama's signature healthcare reform law led to a partial government shutdown on Oct. 1, sidelining hundreds of thousands of federal workers. Cruz and other Republicans backed by the conservative, small government Tea Party movement want to repeal or delay the healthcare law.
The initial fight over the healthcare law turned into a bigger argument over the debt ceiling, threatening a default that would have reverberations around the world.
House Speaker John Boehner, in a statement, said the House would not seek to block the compromise.
"The House has fought with everything it has to convince the president of the United States to engage in bipartisan negotiations aimed at addressing our country's debt and providing fairness for the American people under ObamaCare. That fight will continue. But blocking the bipartisan agreement reached today by the members of the Senate will not be a tactic for us," he said.
The Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group that backs lower government spending, urged the Senate and House to vote "no" on a deal.
"If we don't get a default, it would be like Y2K. People were staying up all night worried about what would happen during that deadline. Then nothing happened," said David Keeble, global head of interest rate strategy with Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in New York, referring to worries about the millennium computer bug in 2000.
Both Democrats and Republicans are confident that the U.S. House of Representatives will have enough votes on Wednesday to pass the bipartisan Senate plan, a top Democratic aide said.
Aides to House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, called senior Senate staff to say the House would vote first on the measure, the aide said. The aide said it appears certain to be approved with mostly Democratic votes.
Boehner has been under fierce pressure from conservative members of the House not to call a vote relying on Democratic votes, and his job may be on the line if they continue their opposition to the Senate deal.
Senator John McCain, whose fellow Republicans triggered the crisis with demands that President Barack Obama's signature "Obamacare" healthcare law be defunded, said on Wednesday the deal marked the "end of an agonizing odyssey" for Americans.
"It is one of the most shameful chapters I have seen in the years I've spent in the Senate," said McCain, who had repeatedly warned Republicans not to link their demands for Obamacare changes to the debt limit or government spending bill.
Lawmakers are racing against time. While analysts and U.S. officials say the government will still have roughly $30 billion in cash to pay many obligations for at least a few days after Oct. 17, the financial sector may begin to seize up if the deal is not finalized in both chambers.
"Today is definitely not the day to be conducting any serious business as traders across the globe will be hypnotized by their TVs/terminals and anxiously waiting for something to hit the news wires," Jonathan Sudaria, a trader at Capital Spreads in London, wrote in a client note.
Fitch Ratings has said it could cut the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA, citing the political brinkmanship over raising the debt ceiling.
The deal that emerged on Wednesday would basically give Obama what he has demanded for months: A straight-forward debt limit hike and government funding bill.
The deal would extend U.S. borrowing authority until Feb. 7, although the Treasury Department would have tools to temporarily extend its borrowing capacity beyond that date if Congress failed to act early next year. It would also fund government agencies until Jan. 15.
The deal includes some income verification procedures for those seeking subsidies under the healthcare law, but Republicans surrendered on their attempts to include other changes, including the elimination of a medical device tax used to help pay for it.
With Republicans in the House of Representatives deeply divided on the way forward, White House spokesman Jay Carney said "we are not putting odds on anything" when asked about a House vote on the Senate plan.
The budget deadlock led to federal agency shutdowns at the beginning of the fiscal year on Oct. 1 as Obama and his fellow Democrats stood firm against changing the healthcare law.
Uncertainty over the shutdown and the debt ceiling have already taken a toll on the economy and on confidence in U.S. assets.
Richard Fisher, the hawkish president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, told Reuters on Tuesday that "reckless" U.S. fiscal policy will likely force the Federal Reserve to stand pat on monetary policy this month rather than reducing bond purchases the central bank has used to help support the economy.

by **Cals** Thu 17 Oct 2013, 08:32

stand pat
1. To oppose or resist change.
2. Games To play one's poker hand without drawing more cards.

by **kppl** Thu 17 Oct 2013, 23:37

Debt Limit deal reached, new date to watch 13th December where US gov to plan for a longer term deal and 15th Jan 2014 the new debt limit dateline.

For now it's all new year high to re-challenge.
QQQ & IWM reached new year high, SPY soon!

by **Cals** Sun 20 Oct 2013, 19:28

Wall St Week Ahead Market priced for perfection as earnings, data flow

Business & Markets 2013

Written by Reuters

Saturday, 19 October 2013 15:00

NEW YORK (Oct 19): A U.S. data clog will begin to clear next week and payrolls figures will land just as more than one-quarter of S&P 500 companies report earnings. But equities, at record highs, have already surpassed expectations for the year and could begin to drift sideways.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1,744.50, an all-time high, making it safe to say the bulls are in control on Wall Street. Neither the four-month rise in benchmark Treasuries yields that topped in September nor the government shutdown and near-technical default on U.S. debt earlier this week could derail the rally.
"Investors may be feeling a bit invincible, having survived the rise in rates and the shenanigans in D.C.," said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
He said, however, the consequences of the rise in interest rates and the evidence of an economic slowdown could take a toll, and investors could begin to cash in on a good year as fourth-quarter outlooks dim.
Expectations for earnings growth in the year's last quarter are now at a lofty 10.3 percent, though they are expected to fall.
"I'm not so concerned about the third-quarter earnings numbers as those are likely to come in without much fanfare. I'm more concerned about what analysts do with fourth-quarter earnings numbers," Jacobsen said. "I think we could have a topping market here."
Positive third-quarter earnings from Google and Morgan Stanley helped the S&P close at a record on Friday. For the week, the Dow rose 1.1 percent, the S&P was up 2.4 percent and the Nasdaq advanced 3.2 percent.
HERE COMES THE DATA
September payrolls numbers, expected two weeks ago, will be released on Tuesday to start a flow of economic data delayed because of the 16-day government shutdown that ended on Thursday.
The September data won't be corrupted because of the delay, but October data may be. The Federal Reserve has repeated that its decision regarding when and by how much to reduce its $85 billion a month stimulus is data dependent, and the trend may not be reliable next month.
"Professional investors are pretty well aware of the new schedule, but that may not be the case for retail," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.
"When we get the non-farm payrolls next Tuesday, the focus may shift to 'what is the Fed going to do with its stimulus program' since we've moved away from the whole Washington drama for now."
Adding to the data question mark, the economic headwinds stemming from the recent disarray in Washington have all but ensured the Fed's quantitative easing will not be reduced until next year.
EARNINGS GALORE
About 28 percent of S&P 500 components will report earnings next week. The list includes Dow components Caterpillar, McDonald's, Boeing, Microsoft, UPS , AT&T and DuPont, among others, alongside crowd favorites Netflix and Amazon.com.
Overall earnings growth on the S&P 500 is expected to be 2.1 percent for the third quarter, down from an estimate of 4.5 percent at the beginning of October and 8.5 percent in July.
In terms of revenue, 53 percent of the nearly 100 companies that have reported have beaten expectations and 46.9 percent have missed. In a typical quarter going back to 2002, 61 percent of companies beat revenue estimates and 39 percent missed.
"It's going to pull us back to earth a little bit. Earnings are important but what I am looking at is revenue," said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial in Waltham, Massachusetts.
"There are a couple of companies that are doing well, and God bless them, but is that the rule or the exception?"
At 14.6, the S&P's forward price-to-earnings ratio is near its highest in four years and slightly under the long-term mean of 14.9. The P/E multiple has risen throughout the year as earnings growth has remained stagnant, and forecasts are likely to fall in coming months. Without improved growth, that P/E will start to look expensive. - Reuters

by **Cals** Tue 22 Oct 2013, 21:17

not looking good , bad job numbers

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by **Cals** Sat 26 Oct 2013, 20:42

US Stocks Wall St up on tech results, on track for weekly rise

Business & Markets 2013

Written by Reuters

Saturday, 26 October 2013 10:42

NEW YORK (Oct 26): U.S. stocks edged up on Friday with technology shares leading the gains on strong results, though the market's rally appeared to be running out of steam with indexes near all-time highs.
The S&P 500 has gained 23 percent so far this year, just shy of the 23.5 percent jump it posted in 2009. Surpassing the 2009 record would give the index its biggest annual gain in a decade. The benchmark is on track for its third-straight week of gains.
Microsoft Corp was the leading point gainer on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 as profit and revenue reported late Thursday exceeded expectations, sending shares up 5.5 percent to $35.59. Amazon.com posted its largest daily gain since April 2012 after the online retailer reported stronger-than-expected sales growth. Shares jumped 8.3 percent to $359.74 after hitting a record $368.40.
"We've been positive on Microsoft for a while, but I can't remember the last time I saw it move up this much after earnings. It is very positive, and helping to boost the overall tape today," said Douglas DePietro, managing director at Evercore Partners in New York.
"Still, the market has been getting tired lately. While I believe we'll see another leg up soon, it isn't out of the question that we would need to consolidate near all-time highs."
The Dow Jones industrial average was up 28.28 points, or 0.18 percent, at 15,537.49. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 3.27 points, or 0.19 percent, at 1,755.34. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 7.55 points, or 0.19 percent, at 3,936.51.
For the week thus far, the Dow is up 0.9 percent, the S&P is up 0.6 percent and the Nasdaq is up 0.6 percent. It is the third straight week of gains for both the Dow and S&P, while the Nasdaq has climbed in seven of the past eight weeks, up almost 10 percent over that period.
Much of those advances have come on expectations the Federal Reserve will continue its $85 billion a month bond-purchase program for several months, likely providing a floor for stock prices into 2014.
Among other earnings, United Parcel Service's stock hit a record at $96.94 after UPS posted a bigger quarterly profit and said it expects online sales to boost holiday volume. Shares came off highs and were up 0.2 percent to $94.68.
Zynga said it expects a full-year profit after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results due to cost-cutting and a renewed focus on mobile games and core franchises. Shares jumped 11 percent to $3.91.
With 49 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported, 68.7 percent have topped profit expectations, a beat rate above the historical average of 63 percent. However, only 54.2 percent have beaten revenue expectations, below the long-term average of 61 percent.
Dow component DuPont jumped to the highest in more than 13 years a day after announcing it will spin off its titanium dioxide unit within 18 months, yielding to pressure from Wall Street to divest the volatile business. Shares rose 0.2 percent to $61.53.
New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods outside of transportation equipment fell in September, possibly due to uncertainty over government spending, while a surge in aircraft orders helped boost durable goods orders by 3.7 percent last month, more than expected.
U.S. consumer sentiment dropped in October to its lowest level since the end of last year as consumers worried congressional dysfunction and the resulting partial federal government shutdown would hurt growth.
In other data the Commerce Department said wholesale inventories rose 0.5 percent in August, the biggest increase since January. The government also said inventories rose more than initially estimated in July.

by **kppl** Wed 30 Oct 2013, 02:07

Pak Cals,
Betul triple top forming....

by **kppl** Fri 01 Nov 2013, 03:53

Waiting for further signs of direction....

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by **Cals** Thu 07 Nov 2013, 07:30

U.S. Stocks Advance Toward Records Amid Fed Stimulus Speculation
By Lu Wang - Nov 7, 2013 5:18 AM GMT+0800

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Specialists work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.[/font]

U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record close, as Federal Reserve officials said economic weakness warrants continued stimulus and investors await data this week on jobs and growth.

Microsoft Corp. climbed 4.2 percent as Nomura Holdings Inc. said the software company may exit its money-losing consumer business under a new chief executive officer. Ralph Lauren Corp. rallied 5.5 percent after the apparel maker boosted the lower end of its sales forecast and increased its dividends. Tesla Motors Inc. tumbled 15 percent as its vehicle sales missed some analysts’ estimates.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.4 percent to 1,770.49 at 4 p.m. in New York, within two points of its all-time closing high. The Dow added 128.66 points, or 0.8 percent, to 15,746.88, surpassing its previous closing record of 15,680.35 on Oct. 29. About 6.1 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 3 percent above the three-month average.

“The central bank has decided they will reward risk behavior and that’s what we’re going to get,” Bill Mann, chief investment officer at Motley Fool Asset Management in Alexandria, Virginia, said in a phone interview. His firm manages $560 million. “The market will keep hitting their highs until the stimulus reverses itself.”

The S&P 500 has surged 24 percent this year, heading for the best annual performance since 2003, as corporate earnings beat forecasts and the central bank maintained stimulus measures.

Fed Papers

Two separate papers by members of the Fed board yesterday argued the need to maintain a loose monetary policy to support growth in the world’s biggest economy.

William English, head of the Division of Monetary Affairs, supported the Fed’s strategy of maintaining low interest rates while unemployment is above 6.5 percent and wrote that an even lower threshold may be helpful. Another paper by David Wilcox said the weakness of the U.S. economy calls for a “highly accommodative monetary policy.”

“Our initial assessment is that they considerably increase the probability that the FOMC will reduce its 6.5 percent unemployment threshold for the first hike in the federal funds rate,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote yesterday, referring to the studies.

Investors are watching data to gauge the health of the U.S. economy after Fed policy makers said last week they need to see more evidence of sustained improvement before slowing the pace of its $85 billion monthly bond purchases.

Leading Indicators

A report today showed the Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, increased 0.7 percent in September. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a gain of 0.6 percent.

Data later this week may show the U.S. economy slowed in the third quarter and employers hired fewer workers in October.

Commerce Department data tomorrow may show gross domestic product grew at a 2 percent annualized rate after a 2.5 percent pace in the second quarter, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Payrolls rose by 120,000 workers last month after a 148,000 gain in September, while the jobless rate rose to 7.3 percent, Labor Department figures may show on Friday.

Three rounds of bond purchases from the Fed and better-than-expected earnings have helped drive the S&P 500 up more than 160 percent from a bear market low in 2009.

Earnings Reports

Of the 423 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, 75 percent have beaten analysts’ profit forecasts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Income for the broad index (SPX) probably increased 4.1 percent in the third quarter, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“We’re over the period where the market is lifting all boats,” Michael Binger, who helps oversee $410 million as senior portfolio manager for Gradient Investments in Arden Hills,Minnesota, said in a phone interview. “The economy is growing at a mediocre rate. Tapering news is put on hold. At the end of the day, stock prices follow earnings and earnings continue to grow. We have to pay attention to specific stocks.”

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, fell 4.5 percent to 12.68, extending its decline this year to 30 percent.

Eight out of 10 S&P 500 industry groups gained as consumer-staples and utility companies rose the most, climbing at least 1.1 percent.

Microsoft, the world’s largest software maker conducting its first-ever CEO search, gained 4.2 percent to $38.18 for the biggest increase in the Dow and its highest level since 2000.

Bing, Xbox

Rick Sherlund, a Nomura analyst, increased his share-price forecast to $45 from $40, citing potential changes under a new CEO, including a disposal of Microsoft’s business in consumer products such as the Bing search engine and Xbox game console.

Ralph Lauren advanced 5.5 percent to $180.52. The company said it now expects full-year revenue to grow more than 5 percent, up from an earlier projection of an increase of at least 4 percent. Ralph Lauren raised its quarterly dividend to 45 cents a share from 40 cents.

Ensco Plc (ESV) jumped 4.4 percent to $59.55. The offshore contract drilling company boosted its quarterly dividend by 50 percent to 75 cents a share.

Tesla plunged 15 percent to $151.16 for its biggest slide since January 2012. The company said it delivered about 5,500 Model S vehicles in the third quarter. Brian Johnson, an auto analyst at Barclays Plc, had expected 5,820, while Dan Galves of Deutsche Bank AG estimated the company would ship 5,850 cars.

Abercrombie, Chesapeake

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. slumped 14 percent to $33.13 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500 and its lowest level in almost a year. The retailer’s sales trailed analysts’ estimates as teens restrained spending on clothing.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. dropped 6.8 percent to $26.23. The company’s forecast implies a decline in oil production during the fourth quarter from the previous three months, raising concern over its ability to deliver growth next year, William Featherston, an analyst with UBS AG, wrote in a note to clients.

Twitter Inc., the San Francisco-based short-message Internet service, will probably set the price for its initial public offering tonight and begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange tomorrow. It’s likely to raise more than $1.75 billion in a deal several times oversubscribed, two people with knowledge of the matter said this week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lu Wang in New York at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

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by **Cals** Tue 19 Nov 2013, 00:32

U.S. Stocks Fluctuate as S&P 500 Index Climbs Above 1,800
By Alexis Xydias, Nick Taborek & Nikolaj Gammeltoft - 2013-11-18T15:29:03Z

U.S. stocks swung between gains and losses, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index briefly surpassing 1,800, as commodity companies retreated and industrial shares rose before speeches from Federal Reserve officials.

Boeing Co. (BA) rose 2.8 percent after securing record plane orders on the first day of the Dubai Air Show. Tyson Foods Inc., the largest U.S. meat processor, advanced 3.8 percent after reporting revenue above analysts’ estimates on a gain in prices and sales volumes for beef and chicken. Microsoft Corp. fell 1.5 percent after Bank of America Corp. cut its rating to underperform from neutral.

The S&P 500 was little changed at 1,799.11 at 10:23 a.m. in New York and earlier climbed as high as 1,802.33. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 44 points, or 0.3 percent, to 16,006.39.

“As we keep going and making new highs, we get into new territory and the air keeps getting thinner and thinner up here,” Tim Hartzell, who helps manage about $425 million as chief investment officer at Sequent Asset Management, said via phone from Houston. “Everybody is watching Yellen and feel comfortable that she’ll continue QE, maybe even put more into the system.”

Private Investment

China’s leaders vowed to allow more private investment in state-controlled industries and expand farmers’ land rights as part of the ruling Communist Party’s biggest package of economic reforms since the 1990s. New York Federal Reserve Bank President William C. Dudley and Philadelphia Fed Bank President Charles Plosser are scheduled to speak today. The Fed’s decision to maintain the pace of stimulus has helped the S&P 500 jump 26 percent this year.

China’s stocks rose today, with the benchmark index for mainland companies in Hong Kong surging the most since December 2011. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.5 percent.

“We believe China is on the cusp of a massive multiyear bull run,” Christie Ju, managing director at Jefferies Group LLC in Hong Kong, wrote in a note to clients.

Boeing gained 2.8 percent to $139.95. The company took an early lead over rival Airbus SAS in the biennial Dubai expo, signing up Etihad Airways PJSC for its new 777X wide-body planes as well as for more 787 Dreamliners.

Tyson climbed 3.8 percent to $29.87. The company said fiscal fourth-quarter sales rose 7 percent to $8.89 billion, beating the $8.87 billion average of 12 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Microsoft, Nvidia

Microsoft declined 1.4 percent to $37.32. Bank of America analyst Kash Rangan cut the shares to underperform from neutral, citing the risk that the board will select a chief executive officer that disappoints investors.

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) dropped 2 percent to $15.84. The shares were cut to underweight, or sell, from equalweight, or hold, at Morgan Stanley.

Cheap is converging with expensive in the American equity market, narrowing options for investors looking for bargains after the broadest rally on record lifted almost 90 percent of the S&P 500 this year. A measure of the dispersion of price-earnings ratios in the S&P 500 compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. narrowed to 41 percent in June, the lowest on record, and held around that level since.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alexis Xydias in London at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]; Nick Taborek in New York at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]; Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

by **kppl** Thu 21 Nov 2013, 01:36

calender spread on DHI entered.....
sold DHI Dec call 20 @ 0.53
Bought DHI Jan call 20 @ 0.86

by **Cals** Sun 24 Nov 2013, 19:29

Wall St Week Ahead Wall Street can cheer going into Thanksgiving Day

Business & Markets 2013

Written by Reuters

Saturday, 23 November 2013 10:01

NEW YORK (Nov 23): Wall Street set another record this week, and the rally that has taken the S&P 500 index nearly 30 percent higher for the year shows no sign of losing steam as Americans prepare to celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday.
Supporting this scenario, December is historically the strongest time for stocks.
Trading volume is likely to be light as U.S. stock markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and open a half-day on Friday.
The Dow closed above 16,000 and the S&P 500 above 1,800 for the first time this week, but rather than being anxious about a pullback or a correction, investors are afraid to miss the expected Christmas rally.
"The market finally feels comfortable about not having a meaningful correction (this year), that it's OK not to, as we enter a traditionally strong time of the year," said Ryan Detrick at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
The CBOE Volatility index VIX, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, is around 12, a calm zone considering that Wall Street has recorded seven consecutive weeks of gains.
Analysts say with most of the year's big events, like third-quarter earnings, out of the way, there is little to curb investors' risk appetite. The market is not expecting a surprise from the U.S. Federal Reserve's December meeting.
Investors are skeptical over the prospects for a December tapering of stimulus, preferring to focus on March as the starting point for a reduction in the flow of Treasuries and mortgage bonds bought by the Fed, said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.
"A Santa Claus rally appears on the cards," Wilkinson said.
While short-sellers are taking out greater positions betting against the U.S. market gains, they are doing so in less traditional sectors, according to SunGard's Astec Analytics.
The number of U.S. shares being borrowed - the prerequisite for short selling them - is on the rise, but when broken down by sectors, "the image is perhaps not what we might imagine," said Karl Loomes, market analyst at SunGard's Astec Analytics, in a note to clients.
Classically when investors expect a stock market turnaround, whether for the better or worse, high-beta stocks such as information technology companies are the first to see action.
But over the last two months, the areas where traders have been betting on declines have been energy producers and metals and mining, with the number of shares borrowed up more than 20 percent for both sectors. Energy and mining sectors are more dependent on the world economic outlook, far beyond the shores of the United States.
Traditionally more volatile and first-play sectors, such as financials and information technology, have seen far more muted gains in being borrowed - just 5.1 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively.
"On the plus side, however, this focus on sectors related to the global economy may mean the markets can absorb a domestic hit, such as the end to (quantitative easing), with some robustness," Loomes said.
Retail stocks are likely to be in focus next week as "Black Friday" - the day after Thanksgiving when shoppers take advantage of super deals designed to kick start the holiday retail season. Black Friday, when many stores' accounts go from red to black - begins sooner this year.
Major retailers including Target, Best Buy, Macy's and Walmart are beginning their sales around dinner time on Thanksgiving day. Internet retailer Amazon.com has already started marking prices down.
Approximately 89 million shoppers flocked to stores during Black Friday weekend last year, with nearly half finishing all or most of their shopping, according to the National Retail Federation.
ANTICIPATING DECEMBER
December is historically seen as the best month for the Dow and the S&P 500, thanks to a frequent year-end surge by stocks called the "Santa Claus rally."
Since 1929, the return on the S&P 500 for December has been about 1.5 percent on average. For the Dow, the average return has been about 1.3 percent on average from 1910 to 2010.
Investors will get a better sense of the state of the housing sector next week. Data on Monday is expected to show pending sales rose in October, and a report on Tuesday is seen showing an increase in groundbreaking on homes that month and an increase in prices in September.
Other economic data due next week include durable goods orders, jobless claims, Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment, all due on Wednesday.

by **Cals** Sun 24 Nov 2013, 19:32

Microsoft sells over a million Xbox Ones in under 24 hours

Business & Markets 2013

Written by Reuters

Saturday, 23 November 2013 10:04

SAN FRANCISCO (Nov 23): Microsoft Corp sold over 1 million of its new Xbox One game consoles within 24 hours of their hitting store shelves on Friday, on par with Sony Corp's PlayStation 4 despite launching in far more countries.
The new console, which launched in 13 countries, set a record for first-day Xbox sales and is currently sold out at most retailers, Microsoft said in a statement.
Sony said it sold 1 million PS4 units in 24 hours after launching last Friday in just the United States and Canada. The PS4 expands to other regions, including Europe, Australia and South America, from Nov. 29. It then hits Japan in February.
Microsoft is locked in a console war with Sony this holiday season. The software giant hopes the Xbox One not only entices gamers but attracts a broader consumer base of TV fans and music lovers with its interactive entertainment features and media apps.
"We are working hard to create more Xbox One consoles," said Yusuf Mehdi, corporate vice president of marketing and strategy at Xbox.
Robert W. Baird & Co analyst Colin Sebastian has said he expects shipments of 2.5 million to 3 million units for both the Xbox One and PS4 in the fourth quarter.
Both the PS4, priced at $399 in the United States, and the Xbox One, with a price tag of $499, offer improved graphics for realistic effects, processors that allow faster game play and a slew of exclusive video games. - Reuters

by **Cals** Wed 27 Nov 2013, 19:43

Fed Reveals New Concerns About Long-Term U.S. Slowdown
By Rich Miller - Nov 27, 2013 8:25 AM GMT+0800

Federal Reserve Chairman [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ben S. bernanke&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Ben S. Bernanke[/url] and his colleagues are suffering through their own form of cognitive dissonance: revealing new concerns about the economy’s long-term prospects even as they forecast faster growth in 2014.

Worker productivity, a key component of an economy’s health, has risen at an annual clip of 1 percent during the last four years, as the U.S. has struggled to recover from the worst recession since the Great Depression. That’s less than half the 2.2 percent average gain since 1983, according to data from the Labor Department in Washington.

“Slower growth in productivity might have become the norm,” the central bankers noted at their Oct. 29-30 meeting, according to the minutes released last week. That’s a switch from past comments by Bernanke that the deceleration probably was temporary and would end as the expansion continued.

A combination of forces may be at work. Chastened by the deep economic slump, corporate executives have reduced spending plans for factories, equipment, research and development. Startup businesses have been held back as would-be entrepreneurs find it harder to get financing from still-cautious lenders. And out-of-work Americans have seen their skills atrophy the longer they’re without jobs.

“We’re in a slow-growth period of unknown duration,” said[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Edmund phelps&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Edmund Phelps[/url], a professor at Columbia University in New York and winner of the 2006 Nobel prize in economics.

In his latest book, “Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge and Change,” Phelps argues that the U.S. has become sclerotic as entrenched corporate interests have stifled innovation.

Bad News

A lasting decline in the growth of productivity, or nonfarm business output per employee hour, would be bad news for the economy. Its potential -- the ability of the U.S. to expand over an extended period without generating inflation -- is determined by the sum of growth in the labor force and of productivity. A slowdown in the latter would limit how fast the U.S. can develop in the future.

That, in turn, would have far-reaching implications for policy makers, company executives, working Americans and investors. Fed officials would need to be more alert to inflation risks if growth picked up. Lawmakers would face even more difficulties reducing the budget deficit because tax receipts would be lower. Companies might have to settle for reduced revenue, employees for smaller paychecks and investors for diminished returns as a result of the slower expansion.

Lower Returns

“The expected future return of equities is about 4 percent a year” over the next decade, [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ray dalio&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Ray Dalio[/url], founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, a $150 billion hedge fund based in Westport, Connecticut, said at a Nov. 12 DealBook conference in New York.

U.S. stocks have gained about 25 percent annually, including dividends, since reaching a 2009 low, as the Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate near zero and corporate profits have risen.

Northwestern University Professor [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Robert gordon&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Robert Gordon[/url] has argued that the spurt in productivity associated with the computer and Internet revolution is over and as a result, the U.S. will be consigned to a long period of “dismal” growth. He [url=http://faculty-web.at.northwestern.edu/economics/gordon../Is US Economic Growth Over.pdf]predicted[/url] last year that between 2007 and 2027, gross domestic product per capita will rise at the slowest pace of any 20-year period in U.S. history going back to George Washington.

“We had low productivity in the 1970s and 80s, and it certainly wasn’t a great time for the economy,” said [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Michael feroli&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Michael Feroli[/url], chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Consumer-price inflation topped out at 14.8 percent in 1980, while unemployment hit 10.8 percent in 1982.

Scaled Back

The Fed already scaled back its estimates of the economy’s potential to expand. Central bankers now peg the underlying growth rate at 2.1 percent to 2.5 percent, according to projections released Sept. 18. That’s down from the 2.4 percent to 3 percent they saw in April 2011.

Based in part on the minutes, Feroli said policy makers are becoming reconciled to the possibility that the long-run rate is even lower. The former Fed researcher puts it at 1.75 percent and blames restrained capital spending and ebbing computer innovation for the slowdown.

In a Nov. 20, 2012, speech in New York, Bernanke said the financial crisis and its aftermath probably “reduced the potential growth rate” as discouraged workers dropped out of the labor force and businesses held back on investment.

He voiced hope, though, that these drags on expansion wouldn’t last long. “The effects of the crisis on potential output should fade as the economy continues to heal,” he said.

Cruising Speed

A fall in the economy’s cruising speed wouldn’t preclude it from expanding faster than this rate for a while. It just means it couldn’t do so for a long time without overheating.

A number of Fed policy makers forecast growth will pick up in 2014 as the impact of higher taxes and reduced government spending fades. Gross domestic product will rise 1.7 percent this year, according to the median forecast of private economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg.

[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dennis lockhart&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Dennis Lockhart[/url], president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, predicts growth of 2.5 percent to 3 percent next year. [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Charles plosser&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Charles Plosser[/url], head of the Philadelphia Fed, has said he anticipates growth at “around 3 percent.”

Such a scenario argues for investors to hold more stocks than bonds now, according to[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Allen sinai&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Allen Sinai[/url], chief executive officer of Decision Economics Inc. in New York. Sinai, who sees growth accelerating to 2.8 percent in 2014, recommended a portfolio mix of 80 percent equities and 20 percent bonds in a Nov. 18 note to clients.

Bernanke’s Argument

Bernanke has portrayed the past few years’ deceleration in productivity as temporary. In an argument also espoused by Fed Vice Chairman [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Janet yellen&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Janet Yellen[/url], nominated to succeed him next year, he suggested companies were forced to add workers even though economic growth was slow because they cut payrolls so much during the recession. According to this line of reasoning, the additional employees depressed productivity below its trend level in the short run after it climbed an unusually elevated 5.5 percent in 2009.

The trouble with Bernanke’s argument is that it looks “a little past its sell-by date” the longer productivity stays low, Feroli said.

[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Alan blinder&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Alan Blinder[/url], who co-wrote a book with Yellen and is himself a former Fed vice chairman, says he’s concerned.

“Taking the Alfred E. Neuman view, what we’re experiencing is a give-back of the very surprising productivity gains” seen during the recession, he said, referring to the Mad Magazine character famous for saying “What, me worry?”

Productivity Puzzle

Blinder, now a professor at Princeton University in New Jersey, said he’s 65 percent convinced this is what’s going on. “The other 35 percent of me is puzzled by how low productivity has been and worried it might continue.”

Former Treasury Secretary [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Lawrence summers&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Lawrence Summers[/url] has theorized the U.S. might be stuck in a “secular stagnation” that even zero-percent interest rates can’t solve. The lesson from the crisis is “it’s not over until it is over, and that is surely not right now,” he said during a Nov. 8 panel discussion at the International Monetary Fund in Washington.

Summers, who dropped out of the race to succeed Bernanke in September, said “there is really no evidence” that growth is returning to previous levels.

Bernanke, who appeared on the same panel, called the comments “fascinating.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Rich Miller in Washington at[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

by **Cals** Tue 03 Dec 2013, 02:15

U.S. Stocks Advance on Factory Data Amid Retail Reports
By Nick Taborek & Namitha Jagadeesh - Dec 3, 2013 1:36 AM GMT+0800

U.S. stocks rose, following a three-month advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as data showed manufacturing unexpectedly climbed last month and investors assessed reports on holiday retail sales.

EBay Inc. climbed 2.7 percent as a report showed online spending on Black Friday rose to a record. Gap Inc. and Best Buy Co. added more than 1.7 percent. Newmont Mining Corp., the world’s second-largest gold producer, slipped 3 percent as the precious metal’s price declined.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,809.68 at 12:34 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.4 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 16,089.81. Trading in S&P 500 stocks was 16 percent lower than the 30-day average at this time of day.

“The economic data continues to indicate a synchronized global recovery pattern,” Eric Teal, who helps oversee $5 billion as the chief investment officer at First Citizens BancShares Inc. in Raleigh, North Carolina, said by phone. “I don’t think that the data is too robust that we’re worried about inflation or premature tapering at this juncture.”

The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed 2.8 percent last month and has gained 27 percent this year, poised for the best annual performance since 1998, after the Federal Reserve refrained from tapering its third round of economic stimulus. The index ended November with its eighth straight weekly advance, the longest rally in almost a decade, as data on employment and consumer sentiment boosted confidence in economic growth.

Factory Data

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 57.3 in November from 56.4 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s report showed today. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of 77 economists called for a drop to 55.1. Estimates ranged from 53.5 to 57.5. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.

A separate report from Markit Economics showed the final November index of U.S. manufacturing increased to 54.7 from 51.8 the previous month. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for no change from the preliminary November reading of 54.3. Other reports showed manufacturing in the euro area, U.K. and Chinaexpanded faster than estimated.

The Labor Department’s jobs report on Dec. 6 is forecast to show the U.S. added 180,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate slipped to 7.2 percent, matching the lowest level in five years. The weakest employment recovery in seven decades is proving a boon to equity markets.

$14 Trillion

Five years into a rally that has restored $14 trillion to share prices, U.S. payrolls remain 1.5 million below the level in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Resistance to hiring from ConocoPhillips to Walt Disney Co. will help push S&P 500 profit margins above 10 percent next year, the highest ever, data show. Below-average employment was cited last month by Fed chairman nominee Janet Yellen as the biggest obstacle to raising interest rates.

December has been the second-best month for U.S. equity returns, according to data compiled by Bloomberg that starts in 1928. The average return for the month is 1.5 percent, more than twice the overall monthly mean of 0.6 percent. Should stocks match their historic gains this month, it would put the index at 1,832.90 by the end of the year.

U.S. retailers are coming off the first spending decline on a Black Friday weekend since 2009. Purchases at stores and websites fell 2.9 percent to $57.4 billion during the four days beginning with the Nov. 28 Thanksgiving holiday, according to a survey commissioned by the National Retail Federation.

Holiday Sales

“I would have expected Thanksgiving weekend sales to be stronger, given how well financial markets have done,” Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Wealth Management, which oversees $22 billion, said by phone. “We’re skeptical that the price movement in stocks this year has been supported by fundamentals, so we’re lightening up.”

Online spending rose 15 percent to a record $1.2 billion, according to ComScore Inc., as more customers opted to shop from their couches rather than battling long lines at stores. Online retailers can expect 131 million shoppers for today’s Cyber Monday promotions, up from 129 million last year, the National Retail Federation said.

An S&P index of retailers lost 0.2 percent. Urban Outfitters Inc. fell 3 percent to $37.87 after being downgraded to neutral from buy at Sterne, Agee & Leach Inc.

Retail Gains

EBay (EBAY) climbed 2.7 percent to $51.87. The company was the second-most visited online retailer on Black Friday, behind Amazon, ComScore said.

Gap gained 2.1 percent to $41.84 and Best Buy advanced 1.7 percent to $41.23.

Monster Beverage Corp. gained 1 percent to $59.75. JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its rating on shares of the largest U.S. energy-drink maker by sales volume to overweight, similar to buy, from neutral.

Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) advanced 2.5 to $40.04. The largest U.S. chemical maker by sales plans to separate chlorine-related assets including its epoxy business as the company focuses on higher-margin activities.

Freddie Mac rose 5.4 percent to $2.54. Bank of America Corp. agreed to pay the government-sponsored mortgage insurer $404 million to resolve mortgage-repurchase claims.

Mortgage Loans

The deal covers about 716,000 loans created by Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America from Jan. 1, 2000, to Dec. 31, 2009, and sold to Freddie Mac, the firms said today in separate statements.

3M Co. dropped 3 percent to $129.53 for the biggest loss in the Dow. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to the equivalent of sell and Oppenheimer & Co. chief market technician Carter Worth said the stock is overpriced.

Travelers Cos. slid 1.3 percent to $89.53. The second-largest U.S. commercial insurer was cut to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Groupon Inc. (GRPN), the online discount-coupon company, slid 4.9 percent to $8.61. Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the stock to neutral from buy.

Newmont lost 3 percent to $24.10. Gold touched to the lowest level since July, as signs of the strengthening U.S. economy fueled speculation the Fed will curb its monetary stimulus.

To contact the reporters on this story: Nick Taborek in New York at[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]; Namitha Jagadeesh in London at[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

by **kppl** Fri 13 Dec 2013, 23:15

kppl wrote:calender spread on DHI entered.....
sold DHI Dec call 20 @ 0.53
Bought DHI Jan call 20 @ 0.86

This works, however need to get into many contracts, so a commission structure which favors large contract amount purchases would be a better gain.

DHI Dec call 20 currently @ .13 - gain .40
DHI Jan call 20 currently @ 0.51 - loss .35
net gain .05 per contract

by **Cals** Fri 13 Dec 2013, 23:25

this is realized gain?

by **kppl** Sun 05 Jan 2014, 21:05

Cals wrote:this is realized gain?

before minus commissions.

by **kppl** Sat 11 Jan 2014, 16:24

First round of company reporting to be out next week.

If bad, looks like a dip for DJ.

by **kppl** Wed 15 Jan 2014, 01:22

Dozens of trade-offs in $1.1 trillion budget bill
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WASHINGTON (AP) — A massive $1.1 trillion spending bill to fund the government through October and finally put to rest the bitter budget battles of last year is getting generally positive reviews from House Republicans eager to avoid another shutdown crisis with elections looming in 10 months.
Veteran Republicans said the generally positive response to the all-encompassing spending bill reflected the desire of the rank and file to avoid a repeat of the politically damaging budget standoffs with the White House that led to last year's 16-day partial government shutdown. The government closure sent congressional approval numbers plummeting and roughed up Republicans in particular. They've regained support amid the troubled rollout of President Barack Obama's health care law.

"The shutdown educated — particularly our younger members who weren't here during our earlier shutdown — about how futile that practice is," said House Appropriations Chairman Harold Rogers, R-Ky. "There is a real hard determination now that we will reacquire and use the power of the purse that the Congress constitutionally has been given."
Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., said the bill would get "our country off this notion of shutting the government down" and would allow Republicans to "keep the spotlight on some other issues that affect the other side that we think are very important," a reference to the health care law that's weighing politically on Democrats.
The massive measure contains a dozens of trade-offs between Democrats and Republicans as it fleshes out the details of the budget deal that Congress passed last month. That pact gave relatively modest but much-sought relief to the Pentagon and domestic agencies after deep budget cuts last year.
Western Republicans from timber country were anxious about a cutoff of funding of federal payments in lieu of taxes to towns surrounded by federal lands but were reassured that the payments would be extended though separate legislation. Gulf Coast lawmakers praised a provision aimed at delaying federal flood insurance premium increases from new flood maps that have proven faulty, but the provision left in place other reforms enacted in 2012.
The GOP-led House is slated to pass the 1,582-page bill Wednesday, though some tea party conservatives are sure to oppose it.

Democrats pleased with new money to educate preschoolers and build high-priority highway projects are likely to make up the difference even as Republican social conservatives fret about losing familiar battles over abortion policy.
The bill would avert spending cuts that threatened construction of new aircraft carriers and next-generation Joint Strike Fighters. It maintains rent subsidies for the poor, awards federal civilian and military workers a 1 percent raise and beefs up security at U.S. embassies across the globe. The Obama administration would be denied money to meet its full commitments to the International Monetary Fund but get much of the money it wanted to pay for implementation of the new health care law and the 2010 overhaul of financial regulations.

"This agreement shows the American people that we can compromise, and that we can govern," said Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Barbara Mikulski, D-Md. "It puts an end to shutdown, slowdown, slamdown politics."
The House vote is expected less than 48 hours after the measure became public, even though Republicans promised a 72-hour review period for legislation during their campaign to take over the House in 2010.
On Tuesday, the House is slated to approve a short-term funding bill to extend the Senate's deadline to finish the overall spending bill until midnight Saturday. The current short-term spending bill expires at midnight Wednesday evening.

The measure doesn't contain in-your-face victories for either side. The primary achievement was that there was an agreement in the first place after the collapse of the budget process last year, followed by a 16-day government shutdown and another brush with a disastrous default on U.S. obligations. After the shutdown and debt crisis last fall, House Budget committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Patty Murray, D-Wash., struck an agreement to avoid a repeat of the 5 percent cut applied to domestic agencies last year and to prevent the Pentagon from absorbing about $20 billion in new cuts on top of the ones that hit it last year.

White House budget director Sylvia Mathews Burwell says the measure is a "positive step" because it "unwinds some of the damaging cuts caused by sequestration, ensures the continuation of critical services the American people depend on, and brings us closer to returning the budget process to regular order." She also praised investments in early childhood education and infrastructure.
To be sure, there is plenty for both parties to oppose in the legislation. Conservatives face a vote to finance implementation of President Barack Obama's health care overhaul and Wall Street regulations, both enacted in 2010 over solid Republican opposition. A conservative-backed initiative to block the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating greenhouse gas emissions was dumped overboard and social conservatives failed to win new restrictions on abortion.

Democrats must accept new money for abstinence education programs they often ridicule, and conservatives can take heart that overall spending for daily agency operations has been cut by $79 billion, or 7 percent, from the high-water mark established by Democrats in 2010. That cut increases to $165 billion, or 13 percent, when cuts in war funding and disaster spending are accounted for. Money for Obama's high-speed rail program would be cut off — a defeat for California Democrats — and rules restricting the sale of less efficient incandescent light bulbs would be blocked.

Democrats are more likely to climb aboard than tea party Republicans, but only after voting to give Obama about $6 billion more in Pentagon war funding than the $79 billion he requested. The additional war money is helping the Pentagon deal with a cash crunch in troop readiness accounts. Including foreign aid related to overseas security operations, total war funding reaches $92 billion, a slight cut from last year.

At the same time, the bill is laced with sweeteners. One is a provision exempting disabled veterans and war widows from a pension cut enacted last month. The bill contains increases for veterans' medical care backed by both sides and fully funds the $6.7 billion budget for food aid for low-income pregnant women and their children.

Yet the National Institutes of Health's proposed budget of $29.9 billion falls short of the $31 billion budget it won when Democrats controlled Congress. Democrats won a $100 million increase, to $600 million, for so-called TIGER grants for high-priority transportation infrastructure projects, a program that started with the 2009 stimulus bill.

The spending bill would spare the Pentagon from a brutal second-wave cut of $20 billion in additional reductions on top of last year's $34 billion sequestration cut, which forced furloughs of civilian employees and harmed training and readiness accounts.
Consistent with recent defense measures, the bill largely fulfills the Pentagon's request for ships, aircraft, tanks, helicopters and other war-fighting equipment, including 29 new F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, eight new warships as requested by the Navy, and a variety of other aircraft like the V-22 Osprey, new and improved F-18 fighters and new Army helicopters.

It also contains a longstanding provision blocking the Postal Service from ending Saturday mail delivery and closing rural post offices, a rule that's taking on greater importance as Congress contemplates cost-cutting steps for the post office.

by **kppl** Sun 19 Jan 2014, 20:50

Fed officials have said they won't start raising rates until unemployment falls to 6.5 percent and inflation reaches 2.5 percent. But recent developments seem to have caused the Fed to rethink its position.

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