DJIA up or down

U.S. Stocks Rally as Lawmakers Pass Budget Agreement
By Inyoung Hwang & Tom Stoukas - 2013-01-02T15:21:34Z

U.S. stocks rose, after the largest year-end rally for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1974, as lawmakers passed a bill averting spending cuts and tax increases threatening a recovery in the world’s biggest economy.

All 10 groups in the S&P 500 rose at least 1.4 percent, while all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average also rallied. Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Facebook Inc. (FB) jumped more than 3.2 percent. Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. (C) surged at least 3.1 percent as banks rallied. United States Steel Corp. climbed 5.8 percent after the shares were upgraded at Credit Suisse Group AG. Zipcar Inc. soared 48 percent after Avis Budget Group Inc. agreed to buy the company.
The S&P 500 jumped 2 percent to 1,454.42 at 10:19 a.m. in New York. The benchmark index is up 3.7 percent over two days, the most since December 2011. The Dow climbed 257.83 points, or 2 percent, to 13,361.97 today. Trading in S&P 500 companies was 65 percent above the 30-day average at this time of day. U.S. exchanges were closed yesterday for the New Year’s holiday.
“We sold off on the uncertainty of what it means to go over the fiscal cliff and that’s been removed,” James Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $325 billion, said in a telephone interview. “We’re re-valuing the market based on what’s closer to the underlying economy and most of the economic reports have been pretty good.”
The House of Representatives passed a bill just after 11 p.m. in Washington yesterday by a vote of 257-167, undoing income tax increases for more than 99 percent of households. The S&P 500 surged 1.7 percent on Dec. 31, the biggest rally on the final day of a year since 1974, as Republican and Democratic lawmakers made last-minute concessions to finalize the deal.
The bipartisan vote broke a yearlong impasse over how to prevent more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that could lead the economy back into recession. President Barack Obama said he will sign the bill into law.

One Step
The measure isn’t the grand bargain on deficit reduction lawmakers wanted when they created the tax-and-spending deadlines over the past three years. While avoiding most of the immediate pain, it is only one step toward curbing the federal deficit -- an issue that will return with a February fight over raising the $16.4 trillion debt limit.
Households making less than $450,000 per year would be spared an income tax rate increase under the agreement. The wealthy would see a rise in their top rate, to 39.6 percent, from 35 percent. The top tax rates on capital gains and dividends would go up to 23.8 percent, from 15 percent last year.

Bull Market
The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 13 percent in 2012, extending the bull market rally to 111 percent since March 9, 2009. Stocks of financial institutions and consumer discretionary companies advanced more than 21 percent last year.
Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded in December. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index rose to 50.7 in December from 49.5 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona- based group said today. Economists in a Bloomberg survey projected a reading of 50.5 for December, according to the median of 71 forecasts. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.
Spending on U.S. construction projects unexpectedly dropped in November, restrained by declines in non-residential building and public works, a separate report showed.
Technology companies jumped the most out of 10 S&P 500 groups, climbing 2.5 percent. Apple, the world’s most valuable company, jumped 3.2 percent to $549.04. Facebook, the company that runs the largest social-networking website, advanced 3.3 percent to $27.50.

Banks Rally
Financial companies rallied 2.4 percent. Bank of America Corp. (BAC), the second-biggest U.S. bank by assets, rose 3.1 percent to $11.97. Citigroup added 3.5 percent to $40.93.
U.S. Steel, the largest U.S. producer of metal by volume, gained 5.8 percent to $25.23. The stock was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse, which said the U.S. steel sector may be poised for a bounce.
Zipcar surged 48 percent to $12.23. Avis Budget, an automobile rental company, agreed to buy the car-sharing firm for $491 million, or $12.25 a share, targeting consumers looking for an alternative to owning their own auto. The offer is 49 percent higher than the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company’s Dec. 31 closing price.
To contact the reporters on this story: Inyoung Hwang in New York at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]; Tom Stoukas in Athens at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]; Lynn Thomasson at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Crowd funding

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Buffet watch:
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S&P 500 Rises to Highest Level Since 2007 on Jobs Data
By Inyoung Hwang - Jan 5, 2013 5:43 AM GMT+0800

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the highest level since December 2007, after data showed employers added workers in December at about the same pace as the prior month.

Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) jumped 3.7 percent as it forecast 2013 earnings above analyst estimates. Citigroup Inc. (C) rose 2.5 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added the bank to its conviction buy list. Avon Products Inc. gained 3.2 percent as Bank of America Corp. raised its rating on the stock. Apple Inc. (AAPL), the world’s most valuable company, slid 2.8 percent for the biggest drop in the S&P 500 as technology shares tumbled.

The S&P 500 added 0.5 percent to 1,466.47 at 4 p.m. in New York, surpassing a high set in September. The measure has surged 117 percent since hitting a 13-year low of 676.53 in 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 43.85 points, or 0.3 percent, to 13,435.21 today. More than 6.1 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, in line with the three-month average.
“It’s not an incredibly strongly labor market but it’s mending and it’s going to continue to take time,” Greg Woodard, a strategist at Manning & Napier in Fairport, New York, which manages about $40 billion, said by telephone. “The market realized there’s some outside help. The Fed continues to provide a lot of liquidity. We got some resolution on a lot of uncertainty, although we pushed that uncertainty two months down the road.”
Payrolls rose by 155,000 workers last month following a revised 161,000 advance in November that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a increase of 152,000. The unemployment rate held at 7.8 percent, matching the lowest since December 2008.

‘Unemployment Problem’
“At 7.8, that tells us we still have an unemployment problem and the Fed will still be engaged,” Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco’s chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
A separate release from the Institute for Supply Management showed its index of U.S. non-manufacturing businesses rose to 56.1 in December from 54.7 a month earlier. The median forecast of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a decline to 54.1.
The S&P 500 rose 4.6 percent this week, its largest advance since December 2011. The gauge soared 2.5 percent on Jan. 2 after Republicans and Democrats agreed on a compromise budget that avoided the so-called fiscal cliff of sweeping tax increases and spending cuts.

Bond Buying
The equity benchmark surged 13 percent in 2012, its biggest annual rally in three years, as the Federal Reserve expanded asset purchases and the European Central Bank announced an unlimited bond-buying plan. Stocks slipped yesterday after Fed policy makers said they will probably end their $85 billion monthly bond-purchase program sometime in 2013.
“It was not too hot, not too cold and just right,” Douglas Cote, chief market strategist at New York-based ING U.S. Investment Management, said by phone on the jobs report. His firm oversees about $165 billion. “In light of the uncertainty in December with the fiscal cliff, concern over earnings and other negative market events, the report is a positive surprise and shows employers are still hiring.”
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. raised its stance on U.S. equities in a report today, recommending that investors hold more of the securities than are represented in benchmarks.
“Regardless of what one might think about Washington’s last-minute fiscal deal, it seems to have removed a layer of uncertainty and this is positive for share prices,” analysts led by Myles Zyblock wrote in the note.

Volatility Index
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, fell 5 percent to 13.83 in New York today. It tumbled 39 percent this week, the most ever.
Investors bought shares of companies most tied to economic growth, sending the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index and the Dow Jones Transportation Average to the highest levels since July 2011. The Morgan Stanley gauge of 30 U.S. stocks jumped 1 percent to 1,090.70. The transportation gauge, which includes companies like Union Pacific Corp. and FedEx Corp., climbed 1.2 percent to 5,534.06.
The Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies advanced 0.8 percent to a record 879.15. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector Index also rose to an all-time high, adding 0.3 percent to 386.34.
Eli Lilly rose 3.7 percent to $51.56. The Indianapolis- based drugmaker said net income will be $4.03 to $4.18 a share this year. Excluding one-time items, the company expects profit of $3.75 to $3.90 a share, more than the $3.71 average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Banks Rally
Financial shares had the largest advance among S&P 500 groups, climbing 1.3 percent. Citigroup gained 2.5 percent to $42.43. New Chief Executive Officer Michael Corbat may lead Citigroup to better returns and increased efficiency, according to Goldman Sachs.
Avon climbed for the fourth straight trading day, rising 3.2 percent to $16.09. Bank of America raised its rating on the cosmetics seller to a buy from neutral.
CME Group Inc. jumped 4.3 percent to $53.77. The world’s largest futures exchange reported yesterday that volume in December averaged 9.6 million contracts a day, or 1 percent higher than the year-ago period.
Mosaic Co. (MOS) rallied 3.3 percent to $58.62. The largest U.S. fertilizer producer reported fiscal second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates after North American sales helped potash volumes to exceed its own forecast. Profit excluding a tax benefit and a foreign-exchange loss was $1.02 a share, exceeding the 88-cent average of 11 estimates.

Contact Lenses
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) added 1.2 percent to $71.55 after people familiar with the situation said the company has shown interest in Warburg Pincus LLC’s contact-lens manufacturer Bausch & Lomb Inc. Warburg wants at least $10 billion for the business, the people said.
IPhone maker Apple slumped 2.8 percent to $527. Component production for Apple devices in the first quarter is “exposed to major adjustment risk” as sales to the end of 2012 were weaker than expected, Yasuo Nakane, a Tokyo-based analyst at Deutsche Bank AG, said.
Technology companies lost 0.6 percent for the only decline among 10 groups in the S&P 500. (SPX) Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting released yesterday said business expenditures on equipment and software decreased in the third quarter.
Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker, fell 1.9 percent for the biggest drop in the Dow to $26.74. Intel Corp., the biggest chipmaker, dropped 0.8 percent to $21.16.
Coinstar Inc. (CSTR) slid 3.8 percent to $50.10 after announcing that Chief Executive Officer Paul Davis will retire on March 31. The owner of the Redbox movie-rental kiosks said Chief Financial Officer J. Scott Di Valerio will take over as CEO.

To contact the reporter on this story: Inyoung Hwang in New York at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

U.S. Stocks Fall Before Corporate Earnings Season Starts
By Rita Nazareth - Jan 8, 2013 11:35 PM GMT+0800

U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down for a second straight day, as investors awaited the start of the corporate earnings season.

Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM), the owner of the Taco Bell and KFC fast- food chains, retreated 5 percent as same-store sales fell more than projected in China after a government probe into one of its former suppliers hurt demand. GameStop Corp. (GME), the world’s largest video-game retailer, tumbled 5.5 percent amid a narrower sales forecast. Boeing Co. (BA) dropped 1.1 percent after the planemaker was downgraded at BB&T Capital Markets.
The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent to 1,455.17 at 10:34 a.m. New York time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 47.53 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,336.76. Trading in S&P 500 companies was 9.5 percent above the 30-day average at this time of day.
“We’re waiting for earnings to come out,” said John Manley, who helps oversee about $212 billion as chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in New York. He spoke in a telephone interview. “Valuations are far from excessive. Yet we’ve had a strong rally very quickly. Now the market is adjusting.”
Stocks had the biggest gain in 13 months last week as lawmakers passed a bill averting spending cuts and tax increases known as the fiscal cliff. Fourth-quarter profits at S&P 500 companies grew an average 2.9 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Excluding financial companies, earnings increased 0.5 percent.

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Alcoa’s Results
Alcoa Inc. (AA), typically the first company in the Dow to report results, is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter numbers after the close of trading. The largest U.S. aluminum producer is set to record the strongest annual earnings growth in three years as the price of the commodity rebounds and after the company closed its most inefficient smelters. The shares rose 0.3 percent to $9.13.
Yum slid 5 percent to $64.53. KFC sales in China in the last two weeks of December had a “significant impact” from “adverse publicity associated with a government review of China poultry supply,” the company said yesterday. China same-store sales fell 6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a previous estimate for a decline of 4 percent.
GameStop dropped 5.5 percent to $23.40. The company, which in November said it would close 200 stores because of a “tough video game market,” said comparable-store sales for the full year will fall between 7.5 percent and 9 percent. The company previously forecast sales to drop between 6 percent and 9 percent.

Boeing Slumps
Boeing retreated 1.1 percent to $75.27 after being downgraded to hold from buy at BB&T Capital Markets by equity analyst F Carter Leake.
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) slumped 5.8 percent to $40.44. Lou D’Ambrosio is stepping down as chief executive officer and Chairman Edward Lampert will take over the job as the billionaire hedge fund manager works to revive the retailer.
AutoZone Inc. (AZO) dropped 2.3 percent to $348. The Memphis, Tennessee-based auto-parts retailer was cut to underweight from equal weight by Morgan Stanley analyst David Gober, who said AutoZone is “likely not a great stock in 2013.”
Halliburton Co. (HAL) retreated 2.2 percent to $35.84. The world’s largest provider of hydraulic-fracturing services was downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Monsanto Co. (MON) added 2.7 percent to $98.57. The world’s biggest seed company posted first fiscal-quarter earnings that surpassed analysts’ estimates and boosted its full-year forecast as corn-seed sales climbed in Latin American and the U.S.

Celgene Rallies
Celgene Corp. rallied 3.8 percent to $89.01. The world’s fourth-largest biotechnology company was raised to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets by equity analyst Michael Yee. The 12-month share-price estimate is $100.
The bull market in U.S. equities that began in 2009 may end this year, followed by a drop of as much as 30 percent in the S&P 500 by next year, according to technical analysts at UBS AG.
The S&P 500 may gain 7.4 percent to as high as 1,570 forming a top for the 116 percent rally from March 2009 in late summer this year, Michael Riesner and Marc Mueller in Zurich wrote in a report yesterday. A “cyclical” bear market will then follow, with the gauge dropping as low as 1,100 by 2014, they added. The measure fell 0.3 percent to 1,461.89 yesterday.
“The March 2009 cyclical bull market is moving into a mature stage and in this context, we see the S&P 500 and risk assets moving into a major top in 2013, followed by a new cyclical bear into 2014,” the analysts wrote in the note.
They said the benchmark gauge began a long-term bearish pattern in 2000 which, in turn, consisted of medium-term, or cyclical, ups and downs. One part of this was the increase from 2009, which is now looking to reverse based on a triangular pattern called the rising wedge forming on its price chart, the analysts said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

channeling up....on the downwards part now....to go lower for another few days....

What a way to go.....

Outrage over AIG's government lawsuit idea
After getting rescued by Uncle Sam, the insurer is reportedly contemplating whether to sue over the bailout.

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U.S. Stocks Advance on Optimism About Corporate Results
By Rita Nazareth - Jan 10, 2013 12:25 AM GMT+0800

U.S. stocks advanced, snapping a two- day decline for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid investors’ optimism about fourth-quarter corporate earnings

Alcoa Inc., which reported better-than-estimated sales, rose 0.6 percent after rallying as much as 2.5 percent earlier. MasterCard (MA) Inc., the second-biggest U.S. payments network, rose 1.6 percent after being raised at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Apollo (APOL) Group Inc., the biggest U.S. for-profit college, slumped 11 percent after net income dropped amid a decline in new enrollment.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent to 1,462.18 at 11:22 a.m. New York time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 70.99 points, or 0.5 percent, to 13,399.84. Trading in S&P 500 companies was 10 percent above the 30-day average at this time of day.
“Alcoa’s report got us off to a good start,” said Peter Jankovskis, who helps oversee $3 billion of assets as co-chief investment officer at Lisle, Illinois-based Oakbrook Investments LLC. He spoke in a telephone interview. “Still, earnings growth is going to be a little bit harder to come by. If we see some good results from bellwether companies, that will definitely give a lift to the market.”
Fourth-quarter profits at S&P 500 companies probably increased 2.9 percent, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the second-slowest quarterly growth since 2009, the data show.

Biggest Gains
Seven out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 rose today as industrial and health-care shares had the biggest gains. Measures of energy and utility companies retreated. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, lost 0.2 percent to 13.59 for its seventh straight day of declines.
Alcoa, the first company in the Dow to report results, rose 0.6 percent to $9.15. Aluminum prices are rising as demand in China (AA) and the U.S. increases while record amounts are being shut away in warehouses as part of financing deals. Alcoa, which said yesterday that global aluminum demand growth will accelerate to 7 percent in 2013, is trying to avoid a downgrade to junk by Moody’s Investors Services. The ratings company said Dec. 18 it was reviewing its rating.
MGM Resorts International gained 0.9 percent to $13.07. MGM China Holdings Ltd., a venture between a daughter of casino mogul Stanley Ho and MGM Resorts International, received formal government approval to build its second resort in Macau.

Seagate Technology
Seagate Technology Plc (STX) climbed 3.9 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $32.61. Sales rose to at least $3.6 billion in the fiscal second quarter, exceeding an earlier forecast for $3.5 billion as the company maintained share in the computer hard- drive market.
Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) added 3.9 percent to $39.83. Daniel Loeb’s Third Point LLC took an 8.2 percent stake in Herbalife, becoming the latest firm to bet against hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who has accused the direct seller of nutrition shakes of being a pyramid scheme.
MasterCard rose 1.6 percent to $526.33. The shares were raised to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Mattel Inc. (MAT) climbed 3.2 percent to $36.85. The world’s largest toymaker was raised to buy from neutral at MKM Partners.
Clearwire Corp. (CLWR) surged 7.7 percent to $3.15. The wireless- network operator that agreed to be bought out by Sprint (S) Nextel Corp. last month for $2.97 a share received an unsolicited offer from Dish Network Corp. at a price that’s 11 percent higher. Sprint fell 1.4 percent to $5.89.
NuVasive Inc. (NUVA) jumped 10 percent to $17.35. The maker of devices to treat spinal problems forecast 2013 sales that would beat analyst estimates.

More Competition
Apollo lost 11 percent to $18.63. Competition for students has increased as more traditional universities have begun offering online courses that were once dominated by for-profit colleges. Apollo and its for-profit college competitors have faced scrutiny the past few years from state attorneys general and the U.S. government over their recruiting practices.
Separately, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight, similar to a neutral rating, from overweight.
Bank of America Corp. slid 1.1 percent to $11.85. The lender was downgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse Group AG by equity analyst Moshe Orenbuch. The share-price estimate is $12.
Bets that U.S. stocks will move in unison have fallen to the lowest level in more than two years on speculation earnings season will drive investors to companies with the best results.
The CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index has fallen 12 percent to 62.87 since reaching a four-month high in December. The gauge, which uses options to measure expectations about whether S&P 500 companies will move in lockstep, reached 59.76 on Jan. 2, its lowest level since November 2010.

Daily Swings
Improvement in the world’s largest economy will reduce the market’s sensitivity to government reports, allowing investors to focus on individual companies, Anthony Benichou of Louis Capital Markets said. The S&P 500’s daily swings during the past month have been in line with the average from last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. More than 320 companies in the U.S. equity benchmark are due to release quarterly results in the next month.
“With earnings approaching, we are going to switch from macro to micro, trying to be more selective, and it is going to be a more stock-specific strategy,” Benichou, equity salesman at Louis Capital Markets in London, said in a phone interview yesterday. “It is less about country and sector but more about looking at fundamentals in detail.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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Fed’s Little-Noticed Escape Clause Allows for U.S. Growth
By Caroline Salas Gage - Jan 14, 2013 8:01 AM GMT+0800

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is giving himself an escape clause from his latest stimulus steps in case the economy finally gains momentum.
He’s made his third round of quantitative easing open-ended -- meaning the program doesn’t have a set time frame -- and signaled he may adjust its pace if needed. In December, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee added outright Treasury purchases to its mortgage-bond buying, saying it would acquire U.S. government debt “initially” at a pace of $45 billion a month on top of $40 billion in home-loan debt.

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The strategy gives officials maneuvering room to slow purchases if gross domestic product expands at a more robust pace than forecast, said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. Fed officials in December projected growth in a range of 2 percent to 3.2 percent in 2013, already more optimistic than Wall Street’s median estimate of 2.2 percent, based on 57 analysts in a Bloomberg survey conducted Jan. 4 to Jan. 9.
The Fed “doesn’t want to box itself in,” Maki, a former Fed board economist, said in a telephone interview from his New York office. “You could have a situation where financial markets improve and that leads to better growth. They want to not be committed to keep policy on hold, even if that stronger cycle were to get going.”

Market Bubbles
The approach also would allow the Fed more easily to pull back on its stimulus if financial stability were threatened by forces such as market bubbles or if inflation picked up after years of being tame. Conversely, if the outlook deteriorated, the central bank could prolong its bond buying.
“The extra flexibility will work both ways: They can stop sooner or keep going longer” than if they had set out parameters from the start, said Dana Saporta, U.S. economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York. She predicts the Fed will add to its bond portfolio throughout 2013, after reducing the pace midyear.
Central bankers at their December meeting discussed potentially curtailing or ending their asset purchases this year, surprising analysts and traders when the minutes were released on Jan. 3. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent and yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 0.07 percentage point that day.
“Several” FOMC members said it would “probably be appropriate to slow or stop purchases well before the end of 2013,” because of concern about the Fed’s swelling balance sheet, according to the minutes of the Dec. 11-12 gathering. A “few” were willing to let the program run to the end of the year, while “a few others” didn’t give a time frame.

Fed Stimulus
John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said he was among those who weren’t anticipating the possibility that Fed stimulus would be pared back so soon.
“I had not gotten any inkling that there was a sufficient number of Fed governors and regional Fed presidents who would have considered ending the easing by the end of this year,” Silvia said.
The minutes may have surprised Wall Street analysts in part because private forecasters are more bearish than the Fed, Silvia said. He predicts growth of 2 percent in 2013, at the bottom of the Fed’s range, with the central bank buying bonds at its current pace of $85 billion a month throughout the year.

‘Moderate Pace’
Policy makers at their last meeting saw the economy continuing to expand at a “moderate pace” as concerns about the so-called fiscal cliff restrained growth. While a deal was struck in time to avert some tax increases slated to take effect Jan. 1, automatic spending cuts were forestalled by two months and their fate remains unresolved as the U.S. again nears its statutory borrowing limit.
“Some” Fed officials “noted that an early and constructive resolution to fiscal-policy negotiations had the potential to release pent-up demand,” the minutes said. “A number of participants suggested that the business sector was well positioned to expand spending and hiring quickly upon a positive resolution of the fiscal-cliff negotiations.”
While the Fed may have positioned itself to more easily halt its stimulus if the economy picks up, its base-case scenario may prove too rosy, along with the even more optimistic outlook. A year ago, policy makers forecast expansion in a range of 2.1 percent to 3 percent for 2012. Analysts in the Bloomberg survey this month estimate the economy grew 1.9 percent.

Somewhat Optimistic
Wall Street analysts have been “a little burned” by “forecasts that have been disappointed in terms of what fiscal or monetary policy can achieve,” Silvia said. “The Fed is still being somewhat optimistic that ‘Hey, you know, we still can move ahead, we still have a lot of power here.’”
The central bank is running out of new ways to boost growth after keeping its benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008 and expanding its balance sheet to a record of almost $3 trillion through its asset-purchase programs.
Still, Bernanke’s open-ended approach to quantitative easing would help him respond quickly if the inflation his critics have warned he’d cause ever materializes, Saporta said.
The second round -- $600 billion of purchases announced in November 2010 -- sparked the harshest political backlash against the central bank in three decades, with criticism leveled by Republicans, from House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio to former Representative Ron Paul of Texas, that the program risked a rapid acceleration in prices.

Below-Target Inflation
More than two years later, this has yet to happen. Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 1.4 percent in November from a year earlier. The Fed aims for inflation of 2 percent.
Central bankers in December also adopted a more flexible approach to their interest-rate outlook, saying borrowing costs will stay low “at least as long” as unemployment remains above 6.5 percent and if the Fed predicts inflation of no more than 2.5 percent one or two years in the future. That language replaced an earlier link between the rate outlook and calendar dates. Unemployment was 7.8 percent in December and November.
Saporta said she doesn’t see the 2.5 percent inflation level “as a binding threshold for the foreseeable future.” Debt traders anticipate prices will accelerate at a 2.1 percent rate during the next five years as measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a yield differential between the inflation-linked debt and Treasuries that measures projections for consumer prices over the life of the securities.
Preserving the option to alter the pace of bond buying or stop it altogether will allow the Fed to tailor its policies as the outlook changes, Silvia said.
“It was perhaps simplistic for us to assume they’re going to buy $45 billion all year,” Silvia said, referring to the pace of Treasury buying. “The Fed’s saying their strategy is a little more nuanced.”
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting a five-year intraday high, on improved housing and jobs data as well as better-than-expected results from online marketplace eBay .

The data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a five-year low last week, while groundbreaking for homes rose to the fastest pace in four years last month.

Strength in the housing and labor markets is key to sustained growth and higher corporate profits. Job market improvement helps boost consumer spending while a recovery in housing means more purchases of appliances, furniture and other household goods as well as a source of employment.

"The unemployment claims were nice, the housing starts were nice, so that is positive for us. There are some good positive vibes out there," said Harry Clark, chief executive of Clark Capital Management Group in Philadelphia.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 69.83 points, or 0.52 percent, to 13,581.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 7.31 points, or 0.50 percent, to 1,479.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 17.74 points, or 0.57 percent, to 3,135.29.

PulteGroup Inc shares gained 2.4 percent to $19.81 and Toll Brothers Inc advanced 1.9 percent to $35.56. The PHLX housing sector index climbed 1.5 percent.

EBay's shares rose 3 percent to $54.51 a day after it reported holiday quarter results that just beat Wall Street expectations. It gave a 2013 forecast that was within analysts' estimates.

The S&P is on track for its third consecutive advance, which pushed the index above an intraday peak set in September to its highest since December 2007.

But gains were tempered by weakness in the financial sector, with Bank of America down 3.4 percent to $11.38 and Citigroup off 2.8 percent to $41.29 after they posted their results.

Bank of America's fourth-quarter profit fell as it took more charges to clean up mortgage-related problems. Citigroup posted $2.32 billion of charges for layoffs and lawsuits, while its new chief executive cautioned the bank needed more time to deal with its problems.

The S&P financial sector index slipped 0.06 percent as the only one of the 10 major S&P sectors to decline.

S&P 500 corporate earnings for the fourth quarter are expected to rise 2.3 percent, Thomson Reuters data showed. Expectations for the quarter have fallen considerably since October when a 9.9 percent gain was estimated.

With investors anticipating the current earnings season to be lackluster, their focus will be on the corporate earnings outlook for the months ahead, analysts said.

Shares of Boeing extended recent declines after the United States and other countries grounded the company's new 787 Dreamliner after a second incident involving battery failure. Boeing slipped 0.8 percent to $73.77 and is down 1.7 percent for the week so far.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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Periodically Raised - US debt ceiling.

While the debt limit has been raised periodically since its creation in 1917 -- with Congress increasing or revising it 79 times, including 49 times under Republican presidents, since 1960 -- Republicans are girding for a fight with Obama and Senate Democrats over tying an increase to spending reductions.
The Treasury Department has said that it expects to run out of emergency measures to prevent a breach of the current debt limit between mid-February and early March.
Investors in U.S. Treasury bonds, who most directly bear the risk of a government default, haven’t shown alarm.
The last time Congress fought over raising the ceiling, Obama signed an increase on Aug. 2, 2011, the day the Treasury Department warned that U.S. borrowing authority would expire. Standard & Poor’s cut the nation’s credit rating. Still, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes declined to 2.56 percent on Aug. 5 and have continued to drop. The yield fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.84 percent at 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader pricing.
“The worst thing for the economy is for this Congress and this administration to do nothing to get our debt and deficits under control,” Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin said yesterday. “We think the worst thing for the economy is to move past these events that are occurring with no progress made in the debt and deficit.”

second attemp at resistance line

DJIA 18th JAN

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U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a five year-high, as House Republicans plan to vote next week on a temporary increase in the debt-limit and investors watched corporate earnings.

Morgan Stanley (MS) and General Electric Co. (GE) advanced at least 3.4 percent as earnings exceeded estimates. Intel Corp. (INTC) dropped 6.3 percent as the world’s largest chipmaker reported a second straight quarter of declining sales. Capital One (COF) Financial Corp., the lender that gets more than half of its revenue from credit cards, sank 7.5 percent as profit missed projections.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent to 1,485.98 at 4 p.m. New York time, reversing an earlier drop of 0.4 percent. The Dow added 53.68 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,649.70. The stock market will be closed on Jan. 21 for a holiday. About 6.6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 6.9 percent above the three-month average.

“It’s a bonbon market,” said John Manley, who helps oversee about $212 billion as chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in New York. He spoke in a telephone interview. “We’ve had little pleasant packets of surprises as these corporations keep coming through. I don’t think the box’s finished. Yet you need to remember that the market is near a five-year high and the economy is recovering at a subpar rate.”

Equities rebounded as Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia said in a statement that members of Congress won’t be paid if the House or Senate doesn’t pass a budget by the end of the proposed three-month debt-limit increase. The Treasury Department has said the U.S. will exceed its $16.4 trillion borrowing authority sometime from mid-February to early March. Earlier losses were driven by data showing consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in January.

VIX Tumbles
Nine out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 (SPX) rose today as industrial shares had the biggest gain. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, fell 8.2 percent to 12.46, the lowest level since April 2007.

The S&P 500 is 5.1 percent below its all-time high of 1,565.15 set in October 2007. The Dow is less than 4 percent away from hitting its record of 14,164.53. About 72 percent of the 67 S&P 500 companies which have reported quarterly results beat analysts forecasts. Fourth-quarter earnings grew 3.8 percent, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. At the end of last week, they forecast 2.5 percent growth.

‘Exuberant’
“Anything that gets Congress to think about things and come up with a solution ahead of time provides some reassurance,” Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at the private-banking unit of KeyCorp in Cleveland, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $20 billion. “Don’t forget that we still have substantial debt problems, the economy is still sluggish and companies are beating low-balled estimates. It’s pretty early to be exuberant.”
Morgan Stanley rose 7.9 percent to $22.38. Chief Executive Officer James Gorman, 54, is grappling with higher capital requirements and the firm’s failure to post revenue growth in the first nine months of last year. His plan to reduce costs through job cuts and pay deferrals helped fuel a 28 percent jump in the stock price in the past two months.

GE advanced 3.5 percent to $22.04. It overcame a year-end slump that deepened as President Barack Obama and his opponents in Congress negotiated to avoid $600 billion of automatic spending cuts and tax hikes that had been scheduled to begin taking effect on Jan. 1. Orders for industrial equipment grew 2 percent in the fourth quarter, pushing its backlog to a record $210 billion.

State Street
State Street Corp. rose 5.9 percent to $53.36. The third- largest custody bank said fourth-quarter profit climbed 15 percent after global equity markets rose last year, helping to boost fees and overcome the impact of low interest rates.

Netflix Inc. (NFLX), the largest U.S. mail-order movie-rental service, added 1.5 percent to $99.17 after the company was raised to buy from neutral at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC by equity analyst Tony Wible. The 12-month share-price estimate is $129.

Research In Motion Ltd (RIM) rallied 6.2 percent to $15.84 after being raised to buy from hold at Jefferies Group Inc. by equity analyst Peter Misek. The 12-month share-price estimate is $19.50.

Life Technologies Corp. (LIFE) gained 11 percent to $60.79 after hiring Deutsche Bank AG and Moelis & Co. to assist in a strategic review that the Financial Post newspaper said could end in the gene-sequencing company’s sale.

Intel Slumps
Intel dropped 6.3 percent to $21.25. The company, whose microprocessors run more than 80 percent of the world’s PCs, is struggling as that market faces a second straight year of lower sales, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Intel hasn’t yet gained ground with mobile chips aimed at taking business from Qualcomm Inc. in smartphones and tablets, devices that are luring buyers who have less money to spend in a weak economy.

Capital One sank 7.5 percent to $56.99. The lender that gets more than half of its revenue from credit cards posted a fourth-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates as loan losses climbed.

Visa Inc. (V) retreated 1 percent to $158.27 after being downgraded to neutral from outperform at Robert W. Baird & Co. by equity analyst David Koning. The 12-month share-price estimate is $165.

Bearish Options
Bearish options trading on Boeing Co. (BA) has surged to a record after defective batteries led regulators to ground the company’s global fleet of 787 Dreamliners.

About 138,000 puts that give the right to sell shares of the world’s largest planemaker changed hands in the past two days, the most since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1995. While the shares fell 3.4 percent on Jan. 16, the most in seven months, they rose 1.2 percent yesterday.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, which certified the 787 Dreamliner in 2011, ordered flights stopped until airlines can show the plane’s lithium-ion batteries are safe, according to an agency statement on Jan. 16. The FAA’s move, its first in 34 years to ground an entire plane model, has set off a race to find and fix whatever caused the battery-fault warning on a 787 operated by All Nippon Airways Co. (9202) and a fire on a Japan Airlines Co. jet.

“I worry that there is a battery problem that’s more than just a couple of units, that might require some re- engineering,” William Hart, president of Hartline Investment Corp., which has $350 million under management, said in a phone interview from Chicago yesterday. “There could be more than just this problem. There could be more that they haven’t yet uncovered.”

US Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Day

All Markets Closed

House Votes to Temporarily Suspend U.S. Debt Ceiling
By Roxana Tiron & James Rowley - Jan 24, 2013 2:24 AM GMT+0800

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The U.S. House voted to temporarily suspend the nation’s borrowing limit, removing the debt ceiling for now as a tool for seeking deeper spending cuts.
The measure, passed 285-144, lifts the government’s $16.4 trillion borrowing limit until May 19. It goes to the Senate, where Majority Leader Harry Reid said lawmakers will pass the measure unchanged and send it to President Barack Obama.

“The premise here is pretty simple; it says that there should be no long-term increase in the debt limit until there’s a long-term plan to deal with the fiscal crisis that faces our country,” House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said during floor debate. “This is the first step in an effort to bring real fiscal responsibility to Washington.”
The revised strategy eliminates the risk that House Republicans would be blamed for a default in the short term. Republicans plan to focus on other fiscal deadlines and say they aren’t giving up their fight for cuts to federal programs.
Republicans plan to use two other approaching deadlines -- the March 1 start of automatic spending cuts and the need to pass a bill to fund the government by the end of March -- to extract spending reductions from Obama and congressional Democrats.
The measure passed today, H.R. 325, would allow the nation’s borrowing authority to automatically rise May 19 to accommodate the amount the U.S. Treasury borrowed during the three months that the limit is suspended.

‘They Blinked’
New York Senator Charles Schumer said at a news conference that while Democrats would prefer a longer debt limit increase, House Republicans’ decision “shows that the Republicans are in full-on retreat on fiscal policy.”
“They blinked,” Schumer said. “Gambling with default was never a sound plan by the Republicans.”
Still, second-ranking House Democrat Steny Hoyer of Maryland called the measure a “political gimmick” that puts off the debt-limit issue for three months so House Republicans “can continue to roil the Congress, roil our people and roil our country” with fiscal uncertainty.
Richard Durbin of Illinois, the Senate’s second-ranking Democrat, said the chamber probably won’t act before next week on the House measure.

Adopting a Budget
The House debt-ceiling plan is accompanied by a prod to lawmakers on the budget. It says the House and the Senate each must adopt a budget resolution for the next fiscal year by April 15. If not, the pay for members of the chamber that doesn’t act will be withheld and placed in an escrow account until they adopt one -- or, at the latest, until the end of the 113th Congress.
Reid said the Senate plans to pass a budget this year.
The Obama administration said yesterday it welcomed the House measure as a de-escalation of the fiscal debate.
The debt limit has been raised periodically since its creation in 1917, with Congress increasing or revising it 79 times, including 49 times under Republican presidents, since 1960.
Enactment of the legislation could allow the Treasury to continue borrowing for several months and delay the need for a permanent increase in the debt ceiling until late summer.
Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey, told Bloomberg BNA in an e-mail that “our very tentative estimates suggest” that the Treasury “might not need another permanent increase until August.” Analysts at New York-based RBC Capital Markets LLC concurred, telling clients in a daily research note that “under this deal the drop-dead date might slide until August.”

Emergency Measures
The Treasury Department has said it expects to run out of emergency measures to prevent a breach of the current debt limit between mid-February and early March.
Investors in U.S. Treasury bonds, who most directly bear the risk of a government default, haven’t shown alarm. The 10- year yield fell almost two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 1.82 percent at 12:35 p.m. in New York today, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices.
The vote on the debt ceiling would clear the way for House Republicans to focus on the debate to replace about $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts, half of which would come from defense. Congress delayed the start date of the automatic cuts to March 1.
Republicans are prepared to let the automatic cuts go forward even if Democrats don’t agree to restructure them to fall less heavily on defense, said Representative Tom Cole, an Oklahoma Republican.

‘Something Different’
“We hope we can negotiate something different but we would let them go ahead and happen,” Cole said in an interview yesterday.
After dealing with the automatic cuts, the House is expected to take up its budget resolution and then turn to a bill to fund the government through Sept. 30, according to Representative John Fleming, a Louisiana Republican. The government is being funded through a stopgap measure that expires March 27.
Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin said earlier today that Republicans want to force “a big down payment on the debt crisis” during the debate on spending cuts and extending the government’s borrowing authority.
“We have to set our expectations accordingly” and “fight for those things” Republicans stand for “in a realistic way,” Ryan the Republican vice presidential nominee last year, said at a breakfast sponsored by the Wall Street Journal. “Our job as we see it is to get spending under control, to get some entitlement reforms” and “make sure we don’t have a debt crisis,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Roxana Tiron in Washington at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]; James Rowley in Washington at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jodi Schneider at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Up Up Up!!!
Some highlights:

U.S. stocks rose, extending a five- year high for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as Starbucks Corp. and Procter & Gamble Co. reported increased profit and German business confidence topped forecasts.

Apple Inc. (AAPL), after years of hyper growth that made it the world’s most valuable company, is starting to look more like a value stock, according to some analysts reacting to the iPhone maker’s financial results.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented bond buying pushed the Fed’s balance sheet to a record $3 trillion as he shows no sign of softening his effort to bring down 7.8 percent unemployment.
The Fed is purchasing $85 billion of securities every month, using the full force of its balance sheet to stoke the economic recovery. The central bank began $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities in September and added $45 billion in Treasury securities to that pace this month.

US GDP announcement day!!!

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DJ Fut +100!

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U.S. stocks rebounded from the worst slump since November as German business confidence jumped to a 10-month high and earnings from Hewlett-Packard Co. and American International Group Inc. topped estimates.

Hewlett-Packard advanced 12 percent, the most in the S&P 500, after it forecast profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates. AIG (AIG) climbed 3.1 percent as fourth-quarter results beat forecasts. Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) rose 5.2 percent after increasing its quarterly dividend and adding $5 billion to its stock repurchase program.
The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent to 1,515.60 at 4 p.m. in New York. The index fell 1.9 percent in the previous two days, the most since November, as concern grew that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of stimulus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 119.95 points, or 0.9 percent, to 14,000.57 today. About 5.9 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, 4.6 percent below the three-month average.

“The tone generally is not ebullient, but it tells you that there’s a real strength in the equity market that it’s actually rebounding today,” Jeffrey Davis, chief investment officer at Boston-based Lee Munder Capital Group LLC, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $5 billion. “I haven’t seen a market like this in a long time where you can absorb a week of not-so-good news and rally at the end.”
In Germany, the Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 107.4 in February from a revised 104.3 in January. The median of 38 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey had called for an increase to 104.9. The latest reading was the highest since April.

Italian Elections
In Italy, voters head for general elections on Sunday amid concern the emergence of a populist government will derail the nation’s austerity program.
The S&P 500 (SPX) has gained 6.3 percent this year as U.S. lawmakers agreed on a compromise budget and companies reported better-than-estimated earnings. About 73 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 that have released quarterly results have exceeded profit estimates, and 64 percent beat sales estimates, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The benchmark index retreated 0.3 percent for the week, its first weekly drop of the year. Equities slid in the previous two days as Fed minutes showed several participants at the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting said the central bank should be ready to vary the pace of its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, spurring concern stimulus will be curtailed.

Entry Point
“A lot of people have been looking for pullbacks in the market to put money at work in equities,” said Brian Amidei, a Palm Desert, California-based managing director at HighTower Advisors. His firm manages about $25 billion. “The market got a lift from fourth-quarter earnings. It will do well this year but we will have some volatility in between as we’re starting to see now.”
The S&P 500 is 3.2 percent below its 2007 all-time high of 1,565.15, while the Dow is 1.2 percent from its record high of 14,164.53.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC), a measure of companies whose earnings are most tied to economic growth, climbed 1.3 percent today. The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 1.2 percent, erasing most of the week’s losses. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, retreated 6.9 percent to 14.17, following a rally of 24 percent over the previous two days.
Banks, raw-material and technology companies advanced at least 1.2 percent today, as all 10 industry groups in the benchmark index climbed.

Hewlett-Packard
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) gained $2.10, the biggest rally since November 2008, to $19.20. The largest personal-computer maker forecast fiscal second-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates, helped by cost-cutting measures and a smaller-than- projected drop in service sales.
The Palo Alto, California-based company is using job cuts to bolster profit as demand for printers and personal computers slumps and companies curtail purchases of higher-margin hardware and software.
Texas Instruments rose $1.7 to $34.18. The largest maker of analog chips increased its quarterly dividend by 33 percent and said it added $5 billion to its stock repurchase program.
AIG advanced $1.17 to $38.45. The insurer that repaid a U.S. bailout gained as fourth-quarter results beat analysts’ estimates after investments drove a surprise operating profit. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche, 68, has struck deals to sell units including non-U.S. life insurers to simplify the company and help repay the government.

Investment Results
The operating profit was “driven primarily by better-than- forecasted capital-markets” and other investment results, Randy Binner, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets, said in a note.
Home Depot Inc. (HD) rose 1.9 percent to $65.58, rebounding after yesterday’s 3.1 percent loss. The largest U.S. home- improvement retailer was raised to outperform from market perform by Oppenheimer & Co.’s Brian Nagel, who said the stock is benefiting from increased consumer demand as housing trends improve.
Newmont Mining Corp. added 0.7 percent to $40.82. The largest U.S. gold producer reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates after taxes were lower than expected.

Tysabri Stake
Elan Corp. jumped 3 percent to $10.60. The drugmaker plans to buy back $1 billion of stock, equal to 16 percent of the company’s market value, after selling its stake in the Tysabri multiple sclerosis drug to Biogen Idec Inc.
Nordson Corp. (NDSN) slid 7.1 percent to $62. The Ohio-based maker of machines that apply adhesives to consumer and industrial products said it expects second-quarter earnings-per-share of between 78 cents and 87 cents, compared with estimates of 93 cents.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. tumbled 4.5 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $46.86. The teen retailer with more than 800 namesake and Hollister Co. stores forecast a loss for the first quarter, citing concern about the weak economy’s impact on sales.
To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Pringle in New York at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]; Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

looks like still frozen about 14000

pancit kot

Italian election jitters, Sequestration fears, historical March dip....
take your pick!!

On the Italian election:
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On the sequestration:
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It's a good day!!!

Dow surges to new highs
The blue chips move above their October 2007 peaks, with the entire market participating. The Dow has more than doubled since its 2009 bottom.

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power2 good one