U.S. Portfolio

In this thread I will share trade ideas, charts, notes, and some viewpoints.

The U.S.Portfolio is a market timing portfolio designed to get profit with market trends.

The portfolio invests in companies, exchange traded funds (ETFs), leveraged ETFs, and Inverse ETFs listed on United States Stock Exchanges.

In order to see what is going to happen before it takes place the U.S. Portfolio has an important rule:

“All trade ideas and stop loss orders must be sent to this thread, with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening, and automatically placed on the market after the market opens. The orders will be executed at the opening price, except in the case of stop loss orders."

I consider 5 USD per buy or sell order.

The start value of the portfolio is 35 000 USD.

For this work I will use my experience, memory, intelligence, technical indicators, some are proprietary other are familiar to all people as Relative Strength Index, MACD or Stochastic Oscillator, and some fundamental indicators.

I will try my best …

Avoid “end of race” mistakes. If things are not going well I will not put too much money in stock market. Cut my losses instead of hoping that market will come back. Not play like an addict. I will be objective. I will be an investor or a trader, whatever is considered most advantageous in a particular situation. I will control emotions, apply the reason, not repeat mistakes, and think for myself.


That´s it.

I'll start it soon

welcome John Paul and great to have you here

Cals wrote:welcome John Paul and great to have you here

Thank you

Here is a portfolio update:

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thanks john ,apologies i was away , heard you are from portugal

Cals wrote:thanks john ,apologies i was away , heard you are from portugal

Okay, yes, I´m from Portugal.

JohnPaul wrote:Here is a portfolio update:

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Hi John, did a how to on post pictures
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Hi John Paul, interesting of you to touch on US Market,

question: 1. What are your strategies in picking a stock?

2. Why US stock exchange?

Cals wrote:Hi John, did a how to on post pictures
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I'll try it.


Here is a portfolio update:

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Is practically the same.

i think some members here are interested in US stocks, we have some playing option market and only come on during US market hours. hope members can come and contribute to the discussion and strategize good moves with John here

duckoil wrote:Hi John Paul, interesting of you to touch on US Market,

question: 1. What are your strategies in picking a stock?

2. Why US stock exchange?

Hi duckoil,
Thanks.

Here is the answer to the questions:

1-
In general, firstly I use technical analysis and, secondly, I use fundamental analysis.
I always give more importance to the technical analysis.

I read chart trend and then I follow the trend, and I also try to identify possible reversal points.
There are several ways to read the trend - for example, with the help of trend lines, technical indicators, chart patterns, et cetera. And I use it. I also use the Dow Theory definition of a trend based on highs and lows. A stock trending up is making higher highs and higher lows.

On the fundamental analysis, I give more attention to the Cash Flow from Operating Activities.
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But as I said before, I always give more importance to the technical analysis.

2-
Because the US stock exchange is the greatest stock exchange of the world.
So there are more choices of assets and more available information.

+1 rep for u John

Cals wrote:+1 rep for u John

Thank you :-)

3/27/2013
What is the most common investor mistake? Trading–getting in and getting out at all the wrong times, for all the wrong reasons. You’ve heard it before: Most investors are their own worst enemies. My dad taught me this investing axiom at an early age. In fact, Dalbar Inc. documented it recently in a report available online called “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2012.” Google it, and you’ll see evidence from a 20-year study.

Most mutual fund buyers, for example, badly lag the very funds they buy (and sell) because of bad timing. The average mutual fund holding period for equity or fixed income is only about three years. It’s too short. Moreover, in the last two decades, stupid switching into and out of funds has cost equity fund holders more than four percentage points in annualized returns and bondholders even more–nearly six percentage points.

The solution, of course, is to trade less.

VIEWPOINT of Ken Fisher

Here is the current portfolio:

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A happy Easter to everyone!

happy easter John

I discovered that there was a rounding problem in EXCEL sheet.

To calculate the Return I used the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Money), but to avoid the rounding problem I'm going to use the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Quantity*Buy Price).

The rounding problem has very little effect on portfolio but I have also decided to fix the previous trades.

Here is a current portfolio update:

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I realized that I get stopped out to many times.
The reason this happened it was because I traded a lot.
I will trade less, if I trade less, I get stopped out less, and my broker will get less commission from me.
At this moment, my technical indicators are mixed, so I'll not risk a lot.

I compared the previous period with the current period, and I came to the conclusion that the S&P500 after reaches its resistance line (key value: 1575) can follow the path 1 (down) or 2 (up), in the first chart.

If, over the next two months, the S&P 500 remains below to 1575, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 1, but if the S&P500 rises above 1625, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 2.

I will continue to evaluate on a monthly basis the possibility of happening one of the paths.

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Listed below is one closed trade:

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am watching:

DHI
WFC
CSCO
ORCL

for chart reversals

Here you can see the portfolio update:

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I now wait for the next buy signal of my technical indicators.