Aussie Dollar Sinks as Soft Data Boosts RBA Rate Cut Bets

by **Cals** Tue 30 Jul 2013, 15:17

Aussie Dollar Sinks as Soft Data Boosts RBA Rate Cut Bets
By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

The Australian Dollar sank after June’s Building Approvals report fell short of expectations, boosting bets on an RBA interest rate cut at Augusts’ meeting.

[b class="gsstx" style="text-decoration: underline; font-weight: bold;"]Talking Points[/b]

[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]Australian Dollar Sinks as Building Permits Miss Drives RBA Rate Cut Bets[/b]

[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]Euro May Weaken as German CPI Slowdown Boosts Dovish ECB Speculation[/b]

[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]US Dollar to Resume if July’s Consumer Confidence Report Underperforms[/b]

The [b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]Australian Dollar[/b] underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 1.4 percent on average against its top counterparts, after a disappointing set of [b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]Building Approvals[/b] data boosted RBA interest rate cut expectations. Permits fell 6.9 percent in June, marking the largest monthly drop since July 2012. Traders are now pricing in a 90 percent probability of a 25bps reduction at the next policy meeting, the highest in two months. The [b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]Japanese Yen[/b] weakened as Asian stocks advanced, boosting demand for carry trades funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding currency.

July’s [b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]German Consumer Price Index[/b] data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to decline to 1.7 percent, moderating from a six-month high at 1.8 percent recorded n the prior month. The [b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]Euro[/b] continues to track monetary policy expectations, hinting a soft print may weigh on the single currency as traders price in a greater probability of a dovish ECB when the central bank delivers its monthly policy announcement later in the week.

The spotlight then shifts to the [b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]US economic calendar[/b], where July’s [b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;"]Consumer Confidence[/b]figure willhelpinform speculation surrounding the Fed’s intentions to “taper” the size of its QE asset purchases. On the whole, US economic outcomes appear to be losing momentum relative to expectations over recent weeks. This keeps the door open for a disappointing print that undercuts the case for a near-term reduction in stimulus and applies renewed downward pressure on the US Dollar.

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[b class="gsstx" style="text-decoration: underline; font-weight: bold;"]Asia Session:[/b]

[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]GMT[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]CCY[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]EVENT[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]ACT[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]EXP[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]PREV[/b]
22:45	NZD	Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)	-4.0%	-	1.0%
23:30	JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (JUN)	-0.4%	1.4%	-1.6%
23:30	JPY	Job-to-Applicant Ratio (JUN)	0.92	0.91	0.90
23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate (JUN)	3.90%	4.00%	4.10%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN P)	-4.8%	-2.6%	-1.1%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN P)	-3.3%	-1.5%	1.9%
1:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN)	-6.9%	2.0%	-4.3%
1:30	AUD	Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN)	-13.0%	0.0%	-2.2%
3:05	AUD	RBA Governor Stevens Speaks in Sydney	-	-	-
4:00	JPY	Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUN)	-9.5%	-	-6.2%
5:00	JPY	Small Business Confidence (JUL)	49.4	-	49.6

[b class="gsstx" style="text-decoration: underline; font-weight: bold;"]Euro Session:[/b]

[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]GMT[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]CCY[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]EVENT[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]EXP/ACT[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]PREV[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]IMPACT[/b]
6:00	EUR	German GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG)	7.0 (A)	6.8	Low
7:00	EUR	Spanish GDP (QoQ) (2Q P)	-0.1%	-0.5%	Medium
7:00	EUR	Spanish GDP (YoY) (2Q P)	-1.8%	-2.0%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Lloyds Business Barometer (JUL)	-	36	Low
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUL)	92.5	91.3	Low
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (JUL)	-10.2	-11.2	Low
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL F)	-17.4	-17.4	Medium
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUL)	-0.54	-0.68	Low
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Services Confidence (JUL)	-8.9	-9.5	Low
12:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM) (JUL P)	0.3%	0.1%	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"]High[/b]
12:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY) (JUL P)	1.7%	1.8%	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"]High[/b]
12:00	EUR	German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL P)	0.3%	0.1%	Low
12:00	EUR	German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL P)	1.8%	1.9%	Low

[b class="gsstx" style="text-decoration: underline; font-weight: bold;"]Critical Levels:[/b]

[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]CCY[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]SUPPORT[/b]	[b class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"]RESISTANCE[/b]
EURUSD	1.3209	1.3321
GBPUSD	1.5276	1.5392

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

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