EM ASIA FX Ringgit at 3-year low, Fed tapering views hit Asia FX

EM ASIA FX Ringgit at 3-year low, Fed tapering views hit Asia FX
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Reuters
Wednesday, 14 August 2013 12:44

SINGAPORE, (Aug 14): The Malaysian ringgit hit a fresh three-year low on Wednesday amid broad weakness in emerging Asian currencies, as solid U.S. retail data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve may start scaling back its monetary stimulus soon.

The ringgit lost as much as 0.4 percent to 3.2720 per dollar, its weakest since June 2010, as investors added to their bearish bets on the currency.

"Malaysia is becoming more vulnerable to Fed tapering since they have high foreign bond positioning and the current accountsurplus is dwindling quickly," said Sean Yokota, head of Asia strategy at Scandinavian bank SEB in Singapore.

The Malaysian currency is seen weakening to 3.3000 in the next six months, Yokota said. As of May, foreigners held nearly 50 percent of outstandinggovernment bonds, although central bank data showed foreign holdings slipped to 137.88 billion ringgit ($42.3 billion) from 144.5 billion ringgit in May.
Slowing economic growth, the near disappearance of the country's usually large trade surplus and the government's hesitance to implement much-needed reforms have prompted foreign investors to reconsider their exposure to the Southeast Asian country.

Some analysts said the ringgit does not have a significant technical support until 3.3345, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of its appreciation between March 2009 and July 2011.

The dollar rose after a stronger-than-expected 0.5 percent rise in U.S. core retail sales, the biggest growth since December.

"Dollar/Asia is still very biddish. This situation can sustain until the next FOMC," said a senior Malaysian bank trader in Kuala Lumpur, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on Sept. 17-18.

"I will buy dollar/ringgit on a dip near 3.25," the trader added.

Investors remained wary of possible intervention by the central bank to defend the currency, with market talk of agent banks' dollar selling around the ringgit's session low, traders said.

Won
The won fell as offshore funds sold it and on dollar demand from local importers.

The South Korean currency recovered some initial losses as local exporters bought the unit when weakened past 1,120 per dollar.

"Exporters will not miss the 1,120 level. So, the won is unlikely to weaken much further during the local trade," said a senior foreign bank trader in Seoul.

Foreign investors continued to buy Seoul shares.

Philippine Peso
The peso fell on dollar demand from local companies, although its downside was limited on caution over possible intervention by the central bank.

Traders said there was market talk of the authority's dollar selling around the peso's session low of 43.84.

"It will be difficult to test 44.00," said a foreign bank trader in Manila.

"We need a very good catalyst such as U.S. Treasuries nearing 2.80 percent," he added.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields eased to 2.7045 percent in Asia trading from 2.7210 percent on Tuesday in New York.