Global Markets Emerging market rout eases as data lifts growth hopes

Global Markets Emerging market rout eases as data lifts growth hopes
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Reuters
Friday, 23 August 2013 18:44

* Asian shares, currencies mark upbeat end to tough week
* U.S. debt yields dip from two-year highs
* European shares steady, Nikkei surges as yen falls
* Upbeat manufacturing data hints at global recovery
* Concerns remain about impact of Fed stimulus withdrawal

LONDON (Aug 23): The rout in emerging markets eased on Friday, and world shares headed for a second day of gains, as data suggesting that the global economy is improving took the edge off concerns about the impact of a cut in U.S. monetary stimulus.

Europe's main stock markets were largely steady by mid-morning, after Asia saw an upbeat end to a torrid week that has wiped billions of dollars off emerging markets, in their worst week since June.

MSCI's emerging share index was on track for its first gains after six sessions in the red, and the selling of India's rupee subsided after the currency's worst week against the dollar in decades.

"Hopefully, the worst (of the emerging market selling) may now be over," said Hans Peterson global head of asset allocation at SEB investment management, adding his firm may soon start "bottom fishing" in Asia.

"It doesn't seem to be a repeat of the 1997 (Asian crisis) situation ... and it seems like people are not so keen on being extremely short anymore, so it might twist around a bit."

The relief rally was supported by a dip in U.S. bond yields, which edged back from the previous session's two-year high to 2.89 percent in early European trading, while the dollar steadied after hitting a three-week high.

This week's market turbulence has been driven by growing evidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve is ready to start turning off the taps on its huge stimulus programme — a conviction that is being bolstered by strengthening global data.

Germany confirmed on Friday that its economy grew at a muscular 0.7 percent in the second quarter, while there was more welcome news from Britain as it revised up its earlier Q2 number.

Purchasing managers surveys this week have already showed better-than-expected growth in the euro zone, a Chinese manufacturing rebound and U.S. manufacturing activity rising to a five-month high.

The week's earlier falls meant Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 was poised for its first weekly drop since June, but the region has been a major outperformer recently.

The rebound in Asia left MSCI's global share index up 0.2 percent.

Yields build

U.S. Treasury yields tend to set the benchmark for borrowing costs across the globe, so the recent rise — which is expected to continue as the Fed winds down support, is making it more difficult for indebted countries and companies to pay their bills.

Data from Boston-based fund tracker EPFR Global on Thursday showed $1.3 billion fleeing emerging debt funds in the week ending Aug. 21 — the biggest outflow since mid-July.

Alvin Tan, an FX strategist for Societe Generale in London, said as advanced economies start to pick up, the return investors can get on their bonds, and in their equity markets also increase, making emerging markets less attractive.

"We are seeing a stabilisation (in emerging markets), because of a combination of better data and the lull in the selling, but over the next few weeks, we think the selloff still has some way to go."

"The better data from developed markets does not help them, because the higher bond yields are here to stay," Tan said.

Dollar edges higher

Despite the selloff in Asia, Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said on Friday, that it would not be in anyone's interest for very low global interest rates to continue indefinitely, as this leads to financial imbalances.

"The tapering of QE and tightening of U.S. monetary policy, when it eventually occurs, will not be a bad thing for the region's economies," Tharman told a banking conference.

The dollar touched a near three-week high versus the yen, supported by the rising U.S. bond yields and as Tokyo shares rose after business surveys suggested that the global economy was improving.

In commodities trading, copper prices were up 0.4 percent at $7,352 a tonne, continuing to rise in the wake of Thursday's Chinese manufacturing data (PMI) that suggested demand from the world's second-biggest economy and top metals consumer could pick up.

Gold slipped slightly to $1,375.44 per ounce, heading for a small loss for the week. The precious metal was buoyed by the China PMI, but at the same time pressured by upbeat global economic data and bets on Fed tapering.

Brent crude prices rose 0.2 percent to $110.06 a barrel. Rising political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have bolstered oil prices this week, even as reports of some Libyan ports readying for exports eased supply concerns.

"We've got a much better global demand outlook, and that's the medium- to long-term driver for oil prices," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.