October 2014 SQN® Report By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
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October 2014 SQN® Report By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Trading Tip
October 2014 SQN® Report
By Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
There are numerous ETFs that now track everything from countries, commodities, currencies and stock market indices to individual market sectors. ETFs provide a wonderfully easy way to discover what’s happening in the world markets. Consequently, I now apply a version of my System Quality Number® (SQN®) score to measure the relative performance of numerous markets in a world model. The Market SQN score uses the daily percent change for input over a 100-day period. Typically, a Market SQN score over 1.47 is strongly bullish and a score below -0.7 is very weak. The following color codes help communicate the strengths and weaknesses of the ETFs in this report:
- Dark Green: ETFs with very strong SQN® 100 scores > 1.47
- Light Green: ETFs with strong SQN 100 scores (0.70 to 1.47).
- Yellow: ETFs with slightly positive Market SQN scores (0 to 0.70). These are Neutral/Sideways
- Brown: ETFs with slightly negative Market SQN scores (0 to -0.7).
- Red: Very weak ETFs that earn negative Market SQN scores (< -0.7).
This is basically the same ratings that we use for the Market SQN® Score. The world market model spreadsheet report below contains most currently available ETFs; including inverse funds, but excluding leveraged funds. In short, it covers the geographic world, the major asset classes, the equity market segments, the industrial sectors and the major currencies.
World Market Summary
Each month, we look at the equities markets across the globe by segment, region and sector. In the last month, Asia is mixed. The US is fairly neutral with everything but the QQQ being yellow. Europe is the worst I’ve ever seen it with everything being red.
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(To see a larger version of this chart, click here.)
US equities segments (at the center top of the table) are yellow except for QQQ which is light green and the microcaps which are brown. Other America’s equity markets are not doing that well — Chile is red, Canada, Brazil and Latin America are brown, and Mexico alone is yellow.Europe has not been doing well recently and got much worse over the last month. All the countries in Europe are red. Austria continues to have an SQN 100 score below -2.0.
Asia is in much better shape with India, Thailand, and China/India light green. Japan, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are yellow. Australia, Malaysia and Singapore are brown and South Korea is red.
Looking at the market sectors, the following sectors are in good shape being green - biotech, consumer staples, health care, pharmaceuticals, REITS, technology, utilities, broker dealers, food and beverage, and software. Many sectors are yellow, while building material, home builders, semiconductors and gaming are brown. And finally metals and mining, and oil and gas equipment and exploration are red.
Volatility has gone positive (from what seemed like perpetual red) into yellow territory.
For a second month in a row, currencies are dominated by the US Dollar but it has moved down from 3.0 in September to 1.92 now. The Yuan is light green. Most everything else is either red or brown (Rupee and Real).
Commodities, Real Estate, Debt, Top and Bottom Lists
The next chart shows real estate, debt instruments, commodities and the top and bottom ETFs for the past 100 days.
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Commodities this month are much weaker overall with only livestock and base metals being positive (yellow). Everything else is red or brown. And the blended commodities ETF (DBC) is the worst of all at -2.4. The place to be right now is the US dollar and almost everything else is terrible. US real estate is light green and Chinese real estate is brown, which is a flip flop from last month. All interest rates are light green except for 1-3 year and inflation protected bonds. Junk bonds are brown. Remember a few months ago when they were the strongest interest rate product as everyone was looking for yield?
This month, only the top 2 ETFs in the database have SQN® scores above 2.0 with muni bonds moving back to the top of the list.
All of the weakest ETFs scored below -2.0 but unlike last month, none are below -3.0. The really weak ETFs tend to be agriculture and commodity related.
Summary
Now let’s look at our newest table which measures the percentage of ETFs in each of the strength categories.
Date | Very Bullish | Bullish | Neutral | Bearish | Very Bearish |
2013 | > 1.5 | 0.75 - 1.5 | 0 - 0.75 | 0 - -0.7 | < - 0.7 |
Jan 31st | 27.1% | 39.6% | 20.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% |
Feb 28th | 10.3% | 45.2% | 24.4% | 11.9% | 7.5% |
Mar 31st | 39.2% | 25.5% | 19.1% | 9.0% | 6.4% |
Apr 30th | 49.1% | 21.1% | 14.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% |
May 31st | 29,2% | 23.6% | 19.9% | 12.3% | 14.2% |
Jun 30th | 2.1% | 31.0% | 23.2% | 22.0% | 20.9% |
Jul 31st | 8.2% | 33.5% | 29.0% | 13.3% | 15.2% |
Aug 30th | 1% | 15% | 46.4% | 19.3% | 17.5% |
Sep 30th | 1% | 13.8% | 42.3% | 23.0% | 19.1% |
Nov 1st | 13.3% | 48.3% | 21.8% | 12.5% | 3.3% |
Dec 1st | 14.6% | 42.7% | 24.2% | 13.3% | 4.3% |
Dec 31st | 19.3.% | 45.5% | 22.0% | 11.3% | 2.9% |
2014 | |||||
Jan 31st | 8.0% | 49.3% | 20.7% | 12.7% | 7.6% |
Feb 28th | 18.9% | 48.4% | 18.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% |
Mar 31st | 4.9% | 40.2% | 38.8% | 13.3% | 3.1% |
Apr 30th | 11.1% | 33.9% | 40.2% | 11.3% | 1.8% |
May 31st | 12.5% | 46.5% | 27.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% |
Jun 30th | 53.4% | 33.7% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
Aug 29th | 20.3% | 45.2% | 22.8% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
Sep 30th | 6.6% | 26.9% | 30.2% | 24.0% | 18.5% |
Oct 31st | 2.9% | 17.9% | 38.8% | 17.7% | 26.3% |
In August, 15.8% of the ETFs we track were negative. By the end of September it was 42.5%, and by the end October it’s 44%. That’s a huge change. Similarly, last month 33.5% of the ETFs were bullish and by the end of October it dropped to 20.8%. This is with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high close on October 31st. Does that make sense to you?
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