Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Q4 Asian Business Sentiment Survey - by sector

by **Cals** Thu 17 Dec 2015, 00:37

Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Q4 Asian Business Sentiment Survey - by sector

By Reuters / Reuters | December 16, 2015 : 11:12 AM MYT

(Dec 16): Asia's biggest companies were the least optimistic in four years for their near-term business prospects as concern over slowing economic growth in China damped sentiment in the fourth quarter, a [size=16]Thomson Reuters/INSEADsurvey showed.

The Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Asian Business Sentiment Index, representing the six-month outlook at 103 firms, was 58 for October-December versus 60 three months prior.

Shippers were again the most downbeat, while financial and food firms were neutral with an index of 50, the mark separating optimists from pessimists. Amongst the most positive were builders and drugmakers.

SHIPPING: 3RD TIME MOST PESSIMISTIC AT 36 IN Q4 VS 25 IN Q3

Four of seven shipping-related respondents were negative about their six-month business outlook — the sector's highest-ever number — while two were positive and one neutral.

Two considered a slowing Chinese economy to be the top risk to their outlook while others cited geopolitics and oil prices mired at seven-year lows. Over the past three months, five said their volume of business fell while two cut staff.

FOOD: HIGHEST NUMBER OF NEGATIVES LEAVES INDEX AT 50 VS 79

Japan's Asahi Group Holdings Ltd and Universal Robina Corp of the Philippines were among nine firms where four positives cancelled a record four negatives.

Three saw China's slowdown as their chief risk, while others were worried about their domestic economies, input prices and competition. Over the past three months, four increased sales versus one that lost business, while three added headcount.

FINANCIALS: INDEX NEUTRAL AT 50 VS LOWEST-EVER AT 44 IN Q3

Respondents including PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk and Bank of the Philippine Islands yielded nine neutral outlooks and three each positive and negative.

Financial market volatility ranked as the chief risk for six, while two feared the impact of a U.S. interest rate rise widely expected this week.

Six booked a rise in the volume of business versus four that reported a decline. Personnel was unchanged at eight, while three each added and cut.

PROPERTY: SURVEY'S STEEPEST FALL IN SENTIMENT TO 57 VS 90

Two of seven respondents could see a bright start to 2016 while one was of the opposite opinion. Two said financial market volatility was their top concern, while two others pointed to China's slowing economy. One each cited increased competition and a U.S. rate rise as a worry. Over the past three months, three increased business and added staff.

The overall outlook compared with the more upbeat view of three months prior, when five firms responded to the survey.

RESOURCES: RECORD NEGATIVES HOLD OPTIMISM AT 58 VS 50

Of 19 resource-related firms — including Australia's Oil Search Ltd and Thailand's PTT Exploration and Production PCL — eight viewed the coming six months positively while a record five were negative.

Eight were concerned about economic slowdown in China — the sector's top consumer — while five said low oil prices posed the greatest risk. Six reported increased sales compared with four that lost business, while staffing was mostly unchanged.

AUTOS: STEEPEST RECOVERY IN OPTIMISM WITH INDEX AT 60 VS 33

South Korea's Kia Motors Corp and India's Hero MotoCorp Ltd were among five automotive-related firms where one forecast a positive six months and four were neutral.

One each cited a U.S. rate rise, a China slowdown and slower domestic consumption among risks to their outlooks. Staffing levels and volume of business were unchanged from the previous three months, bar one auto firm that booked increased sales.

The overall outlook compared with the more upbeat view of three months prior, when three firms responded to the survey.

RETAIL: SENTIMENT WEAKEST IN TWO YEARS AT 60 VS 63

Japan's Fast Retailing Co Ltd was among 10 retail-related respondents where four expressed optimism towards the coming six months compared with two that were downbeat.

Three companies said the biggest risk to their outlooks was volatility in financial markets, while two each were concerned about sluggish consumption, China's slowdown and security threats. Four reported an increase in business over the past three months versus one that lost out, and three raised staff.

TECH: OPTIMISM DIPS FOR FIRST TIME THIS YEAR TO 60 VS 73

Twenty firms — including Japan's Canon Inc and Hitachi Ltd — yielded six positive outlooks and two negatives. Eight saw China's economic slowdown as their primary concern whereas three each saw more risk in a U.S. rate hike, increased competition and financial market volatility.

Seven booked increased business over the past three months versus five that lost out, while staffing was broadly unchanged.

DRUGS: INCREASED BUSINESS HELPS LIFT SENTIMENT TO 88 VS 75

Japan's Daiichi Sankyo Co Ltd and India's Lupin Ltd featured among four respondents of which three had a positive outlook and one neutral. Chief risks were higher U.S. rates, a China slowdown, financial market volatility and risks inherent to the companies' domestic economy. One increased sales over the past three months, and three staff.

BUILDING: MOST OPTIMISTIC IN A YEAR AT 90 VS 70

Four of five building-related firms that included India's Larsen & Toubro Ltd and Asian Paints Ltd offered a positive outlook for the coming half-year while one was neutral. None agreed on a dominant business risk, while two reported increased business and one raised headcount.

AIRLINES: SOLE POSITIVE RESPONSE LEAVES INDEX AT 100

Just one airline responded to this quarter's survey, saying the biggest risk to its positive six-month business outlook was a rise in U.S. interest rates.

Note: Companies surveyed change from quarter to quarter.
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