Technical rebound likely

REVIEW: Asian stocks had a torrid start to the week in response to debt crisis in the United States and Europe, with fears of a global recession growing after a credit ratings downgrade for the world's largest economy.

On the domestic front, Bursa Malaysia, which was already in correction mode after establishing an all-time high of 1,597.08 on July 11, was no exception, with the benchmark FBM Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) tumbling a significant 9.24 points to 1,515.19 in initial trade on renewed selling action.

The broad-market sentiment was overwhelmingly negative and consequently, the key index drifted deeper into the red steadily on lack of support, touching a low of 1,476.24 in late morning.

However, just when the local bourse appeared in great danger of a major breakdown, some respite emerged from debt-plagued Europe.

At the end of Monday's session, the local market recouped substantially from an earlier 48.19 points drop to settle down 27.44 points to 1,496.99.

In a response to the downgrade by Standard & Poor's, overnight Dow took a 634.76-point plunge to below 11,000-point mark the next day, racking up the biggest fall in almost three years on liquidation spree and crude oil prices sagged US$5.57 a barrel to US$81.31 on demand worries, as the historic loss of the pristine triple-A credit rating stoked heightening fears of a double-dip recession in the US.

The bearish mood in the US sent jitters across the globe, which saw Asian markets suffering another painful beating, with equities drowning, as investors dumped anything deemed as risky assets.

At home, Bursa plunged as much as 73.52 points, or 4.91% to 1,423.47 soon after the opening bell, crashing below technical support line, depressed by the dreadful overseas performance.

Like the previous day, some respite came in and this round, investors took encouragement of a relief recovery in US stock futures to indulge in “bottom fishing,” scooping up the battered blue chips, thus lifting the FBM KLCI significantly off the lows to finish at 1.472.14, down 24.85 points on Tuesday.

Thereafter, bargain hunting interest dominated the floor, with global equities showing signs of stabilising after US Federal Reserve pledged of at least two more years of near-zero interest rates.

In cautious trade, the key index climbed 8.38 points to 1,480.52 in mid-week but finished down 4.06 points to 1,476.46 on Thursday before recovering some 7.21 points to 1,483.67 yesterday.

Statistics: For the week, the major index shed 40.76 points, or 2.7% to 1,483.67 yesterday, compared with 1,524.43 on August 5.

Weekly turnover amounted to 7.776 billion shares worth RM14.682bil, versus 6.020 billion units valued at RM9.859bil done previously.

Technical indicators: After flashing a short-term buy at the neutral area in mid-week, the oscillator per cent K and the oscillator per cent D of the daily slow-stochastic momentum index sustained upward momentum to close at 54% and 44% respectively yesterday.

Mirroring the trend, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) notched up from the very oversold single digit reading of nine on Tuesday to finish at the 26 points level yesterday.

In stark contrast, the daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram was negative, trending sharply below the daily trigger line.

Elsewhere, weekly indicators were frail, with the weekly slow-stochastic momentum index and the weekly MACD retaining their sell signal.

Outlook: The FBM KLCI plunged to a low of 1,423.47 earlier of the week, summing up a total loss of 173.61 points, or 10.87% from the top of 1,597.08, dampened by the extreme volatility in global markets before paring losses to end the week moderately easier.

The steep declines has resulted a major breakdown on the chart, but it could not be confirmed, as the key index later managed to claw back to above the concrete floor of 1,474 points on short-covering activity.

In this respect, the recent breakdown was interpreted as a “whipsaw” or false alarm. That means, the local market is not yet bearish for now.

However, investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach as Bursa is in great danger and could worsen anytime, with prevailing uncertainty clouding equities.

Technically, the curving up pictogram of the daily slow-stochastic momentum index and the 14-day RSI from the oversold area suggest Bursa is likely to rebound this week, but the upside may be limited, simply because other indicators still are weak or negative.

To the upside, the key index will now be facing resistance at the 1,500 points psychological barrier, followed by the 200-day SMA of 1,530. The upper hurdle is envisaged at the 100-day SMA of 1,545 points and the next, at the 50-day SMA of 1,555 points.

A break below the 1,423.47 may drag the FBM KLCI to the 1,396-1,400 points band. Then, the lower 1,350 points line would be vulnerable.