M’sia trade on uptrend

Key partners in Asia will help sustain strong growth in next 15 years
KUALA
LUMPUR: While views have been that import-export markets are vulnerable
to economic instability in the West, Malaysia's trade should trend
upward, having key partners in Asia that would help sustain strong
growth over the next 15 years.
Malaysia's trade is now dominated
by five key players in Asia China, Singapore, Japan, Thailand and
Indonesia with the first four achieving similar trade magnitude last
year.
In HSBC Bank Malaysia Bhd's
trade forecast quarterly update, it said trade with China would grow at
an annualised rate of 6.35% by 2025, and with India at 6.29%. Trade
with Latin America countries like Brazil, Argentina and Mexico would
increase by 7.51%, 6.83% and 7.36% respectively.
Trade corridors with Qatar and Egypt looked promising as well, although their volumes are lowest at US$1.4bil and US$2.4bil.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] Ng Wei Wei: ‘HSBC will remain bullish about the outlook of the country.’
In
the next five years, Malaysia would have a trade growth of 5.1%,
accounting for around 1.1% to 1.2% of world trade. By 2025, it would
achieve 88% more trade volume from US$325.3bil end of 2010 to
US$552.8bil.
In the undercurrent of Malaysia's economic
resilience are also the trade trends and emerging corridors with China,
Vietnam and India.
HSBC forecasts Malaysian oil exports to China to grow by 7.5% in value, or 176% in volume, annually over the 15-year period.
India
is coming up to be a key export corridor for food and agriculture
industries, setting the annualised growth rate at 12.7% in value or 430%
in volume. In turn, the volumes of India's chemicals and
pharmaceuticals imported into Malaysia are projected to grow 135%.
Imports
from Vietnam will rise notably in the iron and steel sector at 9.3%
annually, while the rubber and plastics sectors will hit 9.9%.
According
to HSBC Bank director of trade and supply chain Ng Wei Wei, driving
regional trade would be important and commodities would be a key puller
for the economy. Another driving force would come from Government
projects such as those under the Economic Transformation Programme.
“Barring
what is happening in the global environment, HSBC will remain bullish
about the outlook of the country because of what the Government is doing
domestically as well as the shift in the way trade is conducted now.
“People
are now moving and looking into Asia,” she said at a briefing on HSBC's
updates on the new patterns in trade flows into Asia.
Ng added that the key anchors for the economy would be commodities, rubber, steel and iron as well as agricultural products.
China's
demand will continue to spur trade in Asia while India's consumption
and investments in Asean and beyond contributes more resilience.
“China
and India are also moving into Africa and Latin America. They are very
aggressive in going out to wherever they can to expand their
infrastructure opportunities. It's not about consumer products anymore,”
said Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp Ltd regional head trade and supply chain for Asia (ex-Hong Kong and Macau) Simon Constantinides.