Japan likely to go into recession

Recovery is not expected until the July to September quarter [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
TOKYO:
The economic fallout from Japan's biggest ever recorded earthquake, a
tsunami and a nuclear crisis will push the nation into recession in the
coming months, a survey of economists said yesterday. The triple
disaster has lanced business confidence, reduced exports and discouraged
consumer spending, the Nikkei business newspaper said after reviewing
analysis from 11 major private economic institutions. Recovery is not expected until the July-September quarter, the Nikkei said.On
average, the world's No. 3 economy was seen shrinking 0.6% in the
January-March quarter from the previous three months, it said. For
the following three months to June, the economy was seen contracting
2.6% on average, with the most pessimistic economist expecting a 7.1%
drop, the daily said. “Most believe that personal consumption and exports will fall (in April-June) from the previous quarter,” the Nikkei said. The
Japanese economy shrank 0.3% in October-December 2010, according to the
Cabinet Office. A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive
quarters of contraction. Exports of automobiles and IT products are seen falling especially sharply due to decreased production, according to SMBC Nikko Securities Inc, the Nikkei said. Power shortages and supply chain disruptions have hit production. Before
the March natural disaster, economists believed the Japanese economy
was going to enjoy a moderate upswing in the January-March quarter, as
exports were likely to be lifted by a gradual rebound of the global
economy. Almost all of the economists said the economy will start
to grow again in the July-September quarter on public works spending in
response to reconstruction demand and a recovery in exports. AFP