Highlight What’s in store for Malaysia after Sunday?

Highlight What’s in store for Malaysia after Sunday?
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Dr Wong Chin Huat
Thursday, 02 May 2013 18:18


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The most vigorous and tense election campaign in Malaysia’s history will end this Sunday but what would greet Malaysia on Monday morning?

There will likely be four possible outcomes with very different implications to the nation and its current leaders.

Scenario 1

The first outcome will be a narrow victory of BN in both votes and seats.

While the Barisan Nasional (BN) has been talking about the prospects of regaining its two-third parliamentary majority, it may not be possible this time round. One thing for sure, Datuk Seri Najib Razak in 2013 is weaker than Tun Abdullah Badawi in 2008.

According to polls conducted by Merdeka Centre, 61% of Malaysians in the Peninsula approved of Abdullah’s performance as Prime Minister three months before the 2008 general election. But the public satisfaction of Najib’s performance dropped from 65% last October to 61% in early February 2013.

While Najib was spared from bitter attacks by former Premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad, he faced a much more assertive electorate than Abdullah. The electorate demands more than cosmetic reform and Najib’s generous hand-outs have not yielded as much appreciation as he has hoped. Three major political demonstrations in three consecutive years since 2011 have put him in the defensive.

Failure to do better than Abdullah in the election will likely land Najib in trouble. Waiting for him after the election is the possible embarrassment and potential revelation in the Scorpene Trial in French court.

Hence, a narrow BN victory will likely see Najib’s involuntary retirement before the year’s end. The ascent of his more nationalist deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, backed by former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, would likely be rocky, as he may be facing a stronger opposition and a highly critical public.

Scenario 2

As the campaigns hot up, increasingly possible is a narrow victory of Pakatan Rakyat.

The opposition coalition is widely expected to take one or two more states such as Negeri Sembilan and perhaps also Perak.

For many, PR’s victory in UMNO’s birthplace Johor would be unimaginable. However, if 80% of the Chinese electorate supports the opposition alliance, a mere 35% of non-Chinese support would suffice to bring about PR’s victory in 16 out of 26 parliamentary constituencies and 33 out of 56 state constituencies in Johor.

The gigantic turnout in rallies, not only around Johor Bahru but also in inland city Segamat, suggests that the state’s BN is more vulnerable than what meets the eyes.

The PR’s marginal victory will be made possible in two ways. First, it wins a substantial number of East Malaysian seats, around 15-20, and some 100 constituencies in West Malaysia to pass the simple-majority threshold of 112 seats. Second, with 100 over seats in West Malaysia against BN’s 60 over seats (almost all would have come from UMNO), the PR may attract instant defection of BN winners in East Malaysia.

A narrow majority will pose a challenge to the new government, but if PR leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim can ensure the collaboration of key component institutions to bring about stability this may soon be welcomed by the population and the market.

In 2000, Taiwan’s Chen Shui Bian who won only about 40% of votes enjoyed nearly twice in approval rating in his early presidential days.

Scenario 3

If the enthusiastic turnout of first-time voters helps PR to capture many marginal seats, the coalition may end up with a more comfortable majority at 130-140 seats. Coupled with a clear majority in votes, says 52-53%, there will be no legitimate ground by any party or institution to question the new government’s legitimacy.

Anwar is likely to implement a series of reforms in the new government’s honey-moon period to further consolidate his power. Already in the card is the reduction of petroleum price. While some of his populist policies may not be welcomed as they are financially imprudent, this may pay off in the stabilisation of Malaysian politics.

Scenario 4

Political transition in Malaysia may turn out to be messy. While the probability may be slim, it is not impossible for either of two complicated situations to emerge.

First, a hung parliament appears if some East Malaysian parties as well as independent candidates capture a number of seats, leaving neither BN or PR with a clear majority.

This will likely trigger the ugly game of defections and counter-defections, which may lead the country into chronic instability. To bring an end to political instability, unelected institutions such as monarchy or the security forces may be forced to step in.

Second, thanks to the widespread gerrymandering and malapportionment, the elections may result in an untenable BN government, which wins a majority of seats but only a minority of votes.

With the public discontent of electoral frauds already rife, it is unlikely the public will accept the rule of BN. This will open up many possibilities including a national unity government, with perhaps Tengku Razaleigh as the interim prime minister.


Dr Wong Chin Huat, a UK-trained political scientist in electoral and party systems, formerly taught Journalism at Monash University (Malaysia). He is currently attached to Penang Institute, a think tank linked to the Penang government.