Maybank IB Research downgrades Aviation sector to Neutral
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Maybank IB Research downgrades Aviation sector to Neutral
Maybank IB Research downgrades Aviation sector to Neutral |
Business & Markets 2014 |
Written by theedgemalaysia.com |
Friday, 07 March 2014 11:13 |
KUALA LUMPUR (March 7): Maybank IB Research has downgraded the Aviation sector to Neutral (from Overweight) and said that 4Q13 results were a big disappointment, with the worse yield and profit decline since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-09.
In a note Friday, Maybank IB analyst Mohshin Aziz said overcapacity was the root of the underperformance, forcing the industry to dump fares in favour of loads.
“We have warned about an industry overcapacity and fare war since early 2013, and by 2Q13 our forewarnings have turned out to be correct.
The fare war intensified in 3Q13, and we thought it had reached the bottom. However, we were wrong as 4Q13 turned out to be even worse as airlines continued to dump fares. 4Q has been seasonally the strongest quarter and it is against conventional wisdom to confer discounts during this period, so we thought.
Mohshin said airline CEOs were looking at 2014 with caution, and had trimmed their fleet growth plans. ‘
“The industry will now deploy eight aircraft, down from 10 earlier. This shows the industry has sobered up and is conferring more respect to the fundamental supply-demand dynamics. 4Q13 should bethe bottom of the cycle and we expect things to get better,” he said.
“Cut to Neutral (from Overweight), AirAsia and AirAsia X are our Buy list, Neutral on MAS, Sell on MAHB,” said Mohshin.
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